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week 11 football picks
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п»їNFL picks, predictions for Week 11: Packers edge Colts; Browns clip Eagles; Patriots begin playoff push.
Week 11 of the NFL season features five games between teams with winning records.
That action starts with the "Thursday Night Football" showdown between the Cardinals and Seahawks — a pair of 6-3 teams in the super-competitive NFC West.
On Sunday, the Titans and Ravens meet in a battle of 6-3 team in the 1 p.m. ET slot. The Packers (7-2) and Colts (6-3) square off in the 4:25 p.m. ET. The Sunday Night Football matchup features the Chiefs (8-1) and Raiders (6-3), and the Monday Night Football matchup pits the Rams (6-3) against the Buccaneers (7-3).
It's a great schedule and a chance to improve on our NFL pick 'em record.
Last Week: 7-7 Season: 57-39.
With that as the mind, below are our picks and predictions for Week 11:
NFL picks, predictions for Week 11.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX/NFL Network k.
The Cardinals won a 37-34 thriller in the first meeting and are coming off an emotional Hail Mary victory against the Bills. Russell Wilson needs to clean up the turnovers after throwing for seven interceptions the last four weeks – a stretch that includes three losses. Seattle gets the rematch, but it's close.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 24.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Browns have dealt with ugly weather in their last two games, but the return of Nick Chubb ignited the running game. Chubb and Kareem Hunt works against the Eagles' 26th-ranked run defense, even if Carson Wentz — the quarterback Philadelphia traded Cleveland to move up in the 2016 NFL Draft for — makes it interesting.
Pick : Browns 24, Eagles 21.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Drew Brees' status will be monitored during the week, and this remains a heated NFC South rivalry. The Falcons rank 31st against the pass. It's another chance for Alvin Kamara – who has 648 receiving yards this season – to shine. New Orleans wins a tight one.
Pick: Saints 31, Falcons 28.
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Alex Smith – a former No. 1 pick – has back-to-back 300-yard games, but Washington lost by a field goal both times. This will be a showcase for the top two picks in last year's draft with Joe Burrow and Chase Young. Burrow leads a last-minute victory for Cincinnati.
Pick: Bengals 26, Washington 23.
New England Patriots at Houston (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Don't look now, but the Patriots have won back-to-back games and could make a second-half AFC playoff push. Cam Newton hasn't thrown an interception in three games, and if that trend continues New England will stay in the hunt.
Pick: Patriots 23, Texans 19.
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Which trend do you take with the Lions? Detroit is 2-4 ATS as an underdog, but they are 3-2 S/U in one-score games. Teddy Bridgewater's status is uncertain, and we will trust the Lions to get back to .500.
Pick: Lions 27, Panthers 24.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Jaguars are double-digit underdogs for the second straight week, but the difference will be an aggressive Steelers' defense that will force Jake Luton into turnovers. Pittsburgh improves to 10-0 behind Ben Roethlisberger – who continues to spread the wealth to a talented group of receivers.
Pick: Steelers 31, Jaguars 19.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
This is the toughest game on the board to pick. The Titans throttled the Ravens in the AFC divisional playoffs last season behind Derrick Henry, and the Ravens have to answer after a Sunday Night Football flop against the Patriots. Lamar Jackson delivers here, but it won't be easy.
Pick: Ravens 26, Titans 23.
Miami Dolphins (-3) at Denver Broncos.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Dolphins have the second-longest winning streak in the NFL at five games, and Tua Tagovailoa is playing efficient, mistake-free football. He gives Broncos general manager John Elway another glimpse at what a true franchise quarterback can do.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Broncos 23.
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Chargers are struck in a three-game losing streak, and they have given up 29 points or more in six straight games. If the Jets were going to get that first victory, then this might be the spot. Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert won't let it happen.
Pick: Chargers 31, Jets 23.
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Packers opened as the favorites, but the line shifted to Indianapolis. Philip Rivers is 1-3 as a starter against the Packers, but he averages 372 yards per game in those contests. Aaron Rodgers matches that in a fourth-quarter thriller.
Pick: Packers 33, Colts 27.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Cowboys had a bye week to figure out the latest quarterback plan, but the bigger issue will be slowing down Dalvin Cook on the road. Minnesota continues to push back into the NFC playoff picture with yet another victory.
Pick: Vikings 29, Cowboys 20.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Las Vegas Raiders.
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
The Chiefs were double-digit favorites ahead of the Oct. 10 matchup, and the Raiders sprung a 40-32 upset. Las Vegas is playing like a playoff team, but the Chiefs learned their lesson. Kansas City won't forget about the running game this time around.
Pick: Chiefs 34, Raiders 26.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.
The Rams have been favored in their last six games, so it's rare chance to play underdog. Tampa Bay is 5-0 when it scores 30 points or more, so Los Angeles' best bet would be if this doesn't turn into a shootout.


NFL Week 11 odds, picks: Dolphins keep win streak alive vs. Broncos, Packers upset Colts.
CBS NFL writer Jordan Dajani gives his picks for Week 11 of the NFL season.
Week 10 was a nightmare. Favorites went 9-5 against the spread, and while that may not sound surprising, favorites have covered just 44 percent of the time this season! A healthy dose of my picks have been centered around underdogs every week, so I'm looking to move on as quickly as possible from last Sunday. As far as some of the favorites I missed, I was shocked that Jake Luton and the Jacksonville Jaguars gave the Green Bay Packers a close game and that the football gods still support the New England Patriots. Did you see the monsoon that started when Lamar Jackson was trying to orchestrate a game-winning drive? And did you see how the weather cleared up as soon as the final whistle blew? Ridiculous!
We have some pretty intriguing games this week, as the Seattle Seahawks look to avenge their loss against the Arizona Cardinals last month, and the New Orleans Saints are forced to take on a divisional opponent without Drew Brees. Below I will give you my top five picks, followed by the rest of the bunch. Let's go ahead and jump in.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Top five picks record: 24-25-1 Overall ATS record: 78-62-5.
Who'll cover the spread in Week 11? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and Kenny White join Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to break down every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Depending on where you grabbed the Texans last week against the Cleveland Browns, they are either 1-8 against the spread this season, or 2-7 against the spread. To be honest, I think Houston's 2-7 straight-up record is not indicative of how competitive they have been this season, but this specific matchup is rough. New England leads the NFL in rushes per game (33.4) and rush percentage (52%), while Houston's defense ranks last in yards allowed per rush (5.2) and rush yards allowed per game (167.4). The Patriots are ineffective when it comes to passing the ball, so they rely on the ground game. Unfortunately, as the stats indicate, the Texans can't stop the run.
Projected score: Patriots 27-24.
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Don't look now, but the Dolphins are on a five-game win streak. Three of those are thanks to their rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is also 3-0 against the spread since taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins have only been favored twice under Brian Flores, but have covered both times! As for the Broncos, Drew Lock is banged up and threw four interceptions against the Las Vegas Raiders last week, as the Broncos lost by 25 points. The second-year quarterback has struggled as of late, as he ranks in the bottom two in completion percentage, passer rating and interception rate this season. If I had to choose a lock of the week, it's probably the Dolphins.
Projected score: Dolphins 28-20.
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Chargers are 0-3 against the spread since starting 5-1 this season. Additionally, all seven of their straight-up losses have come by one possession, which has them on-pace to lead the NFL in one-possession losses for the second straight season! After their 29-21 loss to the Dolphins last week, rookie quarterback Justin Herbert decided to stop messing around and make a change.
Major news out of Los Angeles:
Make all the jokes you want about his haircut, but to me it signals that he's all about business now. Last week, he became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to record two or more passing touchdowns in six straight games, and he leads all rookies with 19 touchdown passes. The Jets are winless for a reason, and are 2-7 against the spread. Joe Flacco is starting this week, so I think the Chargers can win with ease.
Projected score: Chargers 30-17.
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Packers did let me down last week, but they are 10-0 against the spread following their last 10 against-the-spread losses. Green Bay is 7-2 overall, and tied for third in the league with a 6-3 record against the spread. They have just found ways to win this season, and the fact that they are underdogs in this matchup makes me want to pick the Packers even more. Under head coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 5-1 against the spread as an underdog and are 2-0 against the spread as underdogs this season. Dalvin Cook exploited Green Bay's run defense a couple of weeks ago, but Indianapolis has the No. 20 rushing offense in the league.
Projected score: Packers 31-26.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The last time the Buccaneers hosted a primetime game, it didn't go so well. A couple weeks ago, Brees and the Saints blew out the Bucs, 38-3. However, Tom Brady and Co. were able to rebound in Week 10, as they registered a dominant 46-23 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Brady has only faced the Sean McVay-led Rams once in his career -- and that was in Super Bowl LIII. Brady and the Patriots won 13-3, and covered the two-point spread. There's no doubt this Rams team is very sound on both sides of the ball, but Tampa Bay averages about six points more than L.A. per game, and the Buccaneers appear to be more than motivated to prove on a national stage that they are indeed a legitimate contender.
Projected score: Buccaneers 30-24.
Other Week 10 picks.


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