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ncaa football picks for 12th week
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п»їBud's Bets: College football gambling picks for Week 12.
Bud's Bets is my column about college football gambling.
I’ve had a strong few years including 55 percent against the spread in 2019 with an ROI of 5.1 percent.
My strategy has been pretty simple: Make my own numbers using a combination of public and private power ratings, plus my own manual adjustments based on personnel, injuries, and matchup knowledge.
With my numbers set, the next step is being ready to fire on Sunday when the numbers come out on Sunday or Monday. Betting before the professionals who want to wager tens of thousands per game is normally an advantage because I am getting in before the huge money comes in and moves the line. Lines tend to be sharper later in the week and most of my wagers are made early in the week.
Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250 to 500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.
In 2020, there is massive uncertainty with my strategy and all CFB betting. What might have been a great bet on Sunday or Monday might all of a sudden become a horrible wager on a Thursday if key players are rules out due to a positive test of contact tracing. Granted, the risk is equal on both sides of a game, but it’s still not a comfortable feeling. I have no idea how I will do this year.
William Hill Sports Book is a reliable place to find odds.
Strategy thoughts in an uncertain season.
I am playing fewer games this season. To counteract that loss of volume, I will be doing more second-half wagering and live wagering. I post these in the comments and will track these in a separate record because I am interested in seeing the difference in return between pre- and in-game wagers.
I'll be answering any gambling related questions in the comment section throughout the week. Fire away. I'll discuss games each week in the comment section of Bud's Bets.
Season record.
Pre-Game: 76-75 (50%) ATS, -$688, -4.6% ROI.
In-game/live: 47-32 , $1482, 17.9% ROI (being updated)
Total: +$794, 3.2% ROI.
My super annoying year continues. I beat the closing line consistently again and did not hit big winners. I beat the closing line by 7.5, 7, 5, 5, 4.5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0, and -3 points and yet went 8-10 in Week 11. That is ridiculously good beating the market and ridiculously bad at cashing tickets. I certainly wouldn't want a bad process, good result outcome, but this is quite annoying. In any previous year beating the market by that much will result in very profitable weekends over the long haul. But this year it has just not been the case. Live continues to go well.
Week 12 Wagers.
Added Sunday.
UCLA at Oregon -14 . The Ducks should be way too physical for a poor UCLA run defense. This is a quality team.
Clemson -32.5 at Florida State. FSU is really wrecked by injuries, opt-outs, and inexperience. I'd lay anything under 35.
Wisconsin -7 at Northwestern. I trust the Wisconsin defense to shut down the Wildcat offense.
Kansas State at Iowa State -9 . I do not believe in this Kansas State offense at all. It has shown its true colors down the stretch.
Virginia Tech -2 at Pitt. This will probably be square as heck, but if the Hokies do not quit on the season, this really should be over a field goal.
Michigan -8.5 at Rutgers. Rutgers is improved. Michigan is terrible. But if Michigan can play like it did at Indiana two weeks ago, it covers this number easily.
Arizona at Washington -11.5 . I think Washington will be way too physical at the point of attack for the Wildcats.
UMass at FAU -29.5 . I think FAU will have some extra incentive to blow this game out based on prior employment history.
UMass at FAU Over 47.5 (-115). FAU is playing with more pace and will want to run this up.
Indiana at Ohio State Over 64 . I do not love the Hoosier offense but if Indiana can give me 24, I think Ohio State can get 45+.
San Diego State at Nevada Over 46.5 . I made this number 52, so obviously I find a lot of value in it.
UCLA at Oregon -17 . Rumors about Dorian Thompson-Robinson's availability. Oregon's offense looks legit.
FSU team total under 7.5 1H -190 . I think the Clemson defense will shut down FSU in the first half.
Clemson -22 at FSU 1H -110. Same logic as above.
Minnesota Over 28.5 -120 Team Total vs. Purdue. Minnesota's offense is pretty reliable and it should get opportunities.
Cancelled wagers due to covid.
SJSU at Fresno Over 54. 5. This should be in the 60s in my opinion.
Houston at SMU -3. I do not think Houston can do what Tulsa did defensively to the Ponies.
Navy -2.5 at USF. USF has major issues on defense right now with injuries.

College football picks, predictions against the spread for every Week 12 top 25 game.
Week 12 of the college football season features a full schedule — for now.
No. 5 Texas A&M's game against Ole Miss has already been postponed, and there promises to be a few more before the weekend given the rising COVID-19 numbers across the United States.
There are three intriguing matchups between teams ranked in the AP Top 25 on the slate, including a Big Ten doubleheader. No. 10 Indiana travels to No. 3 Ohio State for a noon showdown, and No. 13 Wisconsin travels to No. 19 Northwestern at 3:30 p.m. That sets up Bedlam between No. 14 Oklahoma State and No. 18 Oklahoma.
The first College Football Playoff rankings will be unveiled Nov. 24. Each week, SN picks every Top 25 game against the spread, and we're coming off a rough week.
Last week: 12-1 S/U, 4-8 ATS Overall: 116-34 S/U, 77-65 ATS Top 25: 106-29 S/U, 72-61 ATS.
Now, a look at our picks against the spread for Week 12:
Week 12 picks against the spread.
Thursday, Nov. 19.
Tulane at No. 25 Tulsa (-5.5)
The Golden Hurricane is 4-1 ATS this season, but it's a tough matchup against Tulane — which has a three-game winning streak and has covered in five straight games. It's a tough pick here, but we'll go with the home team.
Pick: Tulsa wins 29-26 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Saturday, Nov. 21.
UCLA at No. 11 Oregon (-14)
The Ducks remain in the College Football Playoff conversation, and they have the Friday Night spotlight to show why. The Bruins are scoring 38 points per game under former Oregon coach Chip Kelly, and we anticipate some late-night Pac-12 fun. The teams have split the past two meetings.
Pick: Oregon wins 37-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 10 Indiana at No. 3 Ohio State (-20.5)
That is a large spread between two top-10 Big Ten teams, and the Buckeyes have won the past 25 meetings. Ohio State has won the past three meetings by an average of 28.3 points. With the extra week off, Justin Fields delivers yet another blowout.
Pick: Ohio State wins 45-21 and COVERS the spread.
No. 6 Florida (-31) at Vanderbilt.
The Gators rank sixth in the FBS with 45.8 points per game, and they poured it on Arkansas last week. Kyle Trask continues his Heisman campaign at Vanderbilt, which has lost by 30-plus points three times this season. The Gators won 56-0 last year.
Pick: Florida wins 48-14 and COVERS the spread.
Appalachian State at No. 15 Coastal Carolina (-4.5)
The Chanticleers have been one of the best stories of the season, but this is the ultimate prove-it game against the Sun Belt's biggest powerhouse. The Mountaineers have won five in a row and have four players who average 5.0 yards per carry or more. Watch out.
Pick: Appalachian State wins 31-28 in an UPSET.
Central Arkansas at No. 24 Louisiana (NO LINE)
The Ragin' Cajuns are up against an FCS opponent, and the Bears have scored 27 points or more in their four losses. Louisiana, however, maintains its ranking with a convincing out-of-conference victory.
Pick: Louisiana wins 45-21.
North Alabama at No. 8 BYU (NO LINE)
The Cougars are back in action against an FCS opponent that is winless in four games this season. It won't prove much, other than keeping BYU in the headlines as one of the undefeated teams in the FBS.
Pick: BYU wins 48-10.
No. 7 Cincinnati (-5.5) at UCF.
The line opened as a pick 'em, and this is a tricky spot for the playoff-minded Bearcats. Cincinnati won 27-24 last year. It's a tough line, but the Bearcats are 5-2 ATS this season and we're going to trust the better team.
Pick: Cincinnati wins 34-26 and COVERS the spread.
No. 10 Wisconsin (-7) at No. 23 Northwestern.
The Big Ten West lead is on the line here, and it's an interesting spot for Northwestern. These teams have split the past six meetings, and the biggest margin of victory on either side is 14 points.
Pick: Wisconsin wins 33-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 22 Texas (-29) at Kansas.
Texas won a 50-48 nail-biter with the Jayhawks last year, but Kansas is 0-7 ATS this year. That's an impossible trend to ignore knowing that Texas can pour it on here.
Pick: Texas wins 49-17 and COVERS the spread.
Kansas State at No. 17 Iowa State (-11)
Iowa State can take another step toward a possible Big 12 championship berth, and this game is key considering that both teams beat Oklahoma. The Wildcats make it interesting, but Brock Purdy delivers in the clutch.
Pick: Iowa State wins 31-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Kentucky at No. 1 Alabama (-30)
Alabama had an extra week to prepare for Kentucky. The Wildcats have four losses, but none of those losses are by more than 16 points. None of those teams is Alabama either. The Crimson Tide is 4-2 ATS this season.
Pick: Alabama wins 44-13 and COVERS the spread.
Tennessee at No. 23 Auburn (-10.5)
The Vols are 1-5 ATS this season and looking for something to cling to after four straight losses. Three straight blowout losses have us wondering when Tennessee will jump up. Auburn is inconsistent from week to week, but the Tigers remember last year's 30-24 loss. The Tigers flip the script.
Pick: Auburn wins 34-21 and COVER the spread.
Mississippi State at No. 13 Georgia (-24)
Two struggling offenses meet, and Georgia's motivation in this game will be tested. Mississippi State has scored 24 points or fewer in five straight games since the season-opening stunner against LSU. Will the Bulldogs be able to launch a blowout?
Pick: Georgia wins 38-16 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 14 Oklahoma State at No. 18 Oklahoma (-9.5)
The Sooners have won the past five meetings by an average of 16.2 points per game, so the pressure is on the Cowboys to maintain their lead in the Big 12. Oklahoma has covered in four straight games since the loss to Iowa State, too. At home, the Sooners cover.
Pick: Oklahoma wins 44-34 and COVERS the spread.
No. 21 Liberty at N.C. State (-3.5)
Liberty's magical season continues on the road at N.C. State, and the Flames have covered in their past five games. It adds up to another shootout against the Wolfpack, which averages 33.5 points per game but allows 33.9 points per game. That's the line we're playing on.
Pick: Liberty wins 34-31 in an UPSET.
No. 20 USC (-3) at Utah.
Are the Trojans a true Pac-12 contender? We'll find out Saturday on the road, where the Utes have won the past three home meetings in the series. Utah still hasn't played, and that makes this game even more difficult to predict.
Pick: USC wins 28-24 and COVERS the spread.

College Football Odds Week 12: Picks Against the Spread and Score Predictions.
Featured Columnist November 19, 2020 Comments Comment Bubble Icon.
The front-runners to face off in the Big Ten Championship Game will be determined Saturday.
The Ohio State Buckeyes take on an unlikely challenger in the Big Ten East in the form of the Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana has knocked off the Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions, who were expected to be top contenders in the Big Ten East, and have one more massive hill to climb to reach the peak of the division.
Over in the Big Ten West, the Wisconsin Badgers are the established power taking on a worthy challenger in the Northwestern Wildcats. Northwestern reeled off three one-score victories to set up the clash of undefeated programs, but it is viewed as the weaker team on the spread.
Wisconsin is much less favored at seven points than Ohio State at 20.5, but both teams have the offenses to blow away their challengers and move a step closer to a December 19 showdown in Indianapolis.
Week 12 Schedule.
Thursday, November 19.
Tulane at No. 25 Tulsa (-6.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Saturday, November 21.
No. 9 Indiana at No. 3 Ohio State (-20.5) (Noon, Fox)
No. 4 Clemson (-35.5) at Florida State (Noon, ABC)
No. 6 Florida (-31.5) at Vanderbilt (Noon, ESPN)
Appalachian State at No. 15 Coastal Carolina (-5.5) (Noon, ESPN2)
North Alabama at No. 8 BYU (-47.5) (3 p.m., ESPN3)
No. 7 Cincinnati (-5.5) at UCF (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
No. 10 Wisconsin (-7.5) at No. 19 Northwestern (3:30 p.m., ABC)
UCLA at No. 11 Oregon (-13.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Kentucky at No. 1 Alabama (-30) (4 p.m., SEC Network)
Kansas State at No. 17 Iowa State (-11) (4 p.m., Fox)
Tennessee at No. 23 Auburn (-11) (7 p.m., ESPN)
Mississippi State at No. 13 Georgia (-24.5) (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)
No. 14 Oklahoma State at No. 18 Oklahoma (-7) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
No. 21 Liberty at NC State (-3.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN3)
No. 20 USC (-3) at Utah (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
No. 9 Indiana at No. 3 Ohio State (-20.5)
Ohio State's average margin of victory is close to three points more than the spread set for Saturday's Big Ten East showdown at Ohio Stadium.
The Buckeyes defeated the Nebraska Cornhuskers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Penn State by an average of 23.3 points, and their two home triumphs were by more than 20 points.
A year ago, Ryan Day's side ran all over the Hoosiers in a 41-point victory in Bloomington, Indiana. That was one of four Top 25 losses suffered by Tom Allen's side in 2019. Indiana reversed that form to start the 2020 season with wins over ranked Penn State and Michigan sides, but those results have to be examined for what they actually are: victories over two bad teams.
Ohio State's offense presents a tougher multi-faceted challenge for Indiana's defense to contain, starting with Justin Fields at quarterback.
Fields has 13 total touchdowns, 11 of which occurred through the air, and he completed 86.7 percent of his 83 passing attempts. The Buckeyes also have a two-pronged rushing attack in Master Teague III and Trey Sermon that could hurt Indiana's front seven on every down.
Indiana has some nice offensive weapons in quarterback Michael Penix Jr., running back Stevie Scott and wide receivers Ty Fryfogle and Whop Philyor.
If Fryfogle and Philyor perform well in the first half against Shaun Wade and the Ohio State secondary, Indiana may be able to keep up with the Buckeyes, or at least cover.
However, Ohio State has been able to contain one aspect of opposing offenses in 2020. It held Rutgers' Noah Vedral to 168 passing yards, Penn State to 44 rushing yards and Nebraska's two quarterbacks to 160 yards through the air.
If Ohio State flashes the same containment Saturday, it can set up Fields and Co. to create a large advantage on the scoreboard and win by the three scores required to cover the spread.
Wisconsin (-7.5) at Northwestern.
First place in the Big Ten West could come down to which team has the more explosive quarterback.
Graham Mertz produced 375 passing yards and seven touchdowns in his first two games for Wisconsin, while Northwestern's Peyton Ramsey had six touchdowns and four interceptions in two more contests.
Mertz's completion percentage is also nine points better than what Ramsey produced, and the Wildcats signal-caller has not completed more than 70 percent of his attempts since the opening win over the Maryland Terrapins.
If Mertz hits his targets at a highly accurate rate, he may produce a few more scoring drives than Ramsey. And if the Badgers need to provide support for their quarterback, they can do so with an abundance of running backs. They have six rushing scores in two weeks compared to eight out of Northwestern in four matchups.
While Northwestern's defense held each of its four opponents to a maximum of 20 points, and it has allowed 301.8 yards per game. Wisconsin leads the FBS with 218.5 yards conceded per contest.
If Pat Fitzgerald's team concedes a similar amount Saturday, it could get stuck behind by double digits, especially if Mertz is as accurate as he was against the Illinois Fighting Illini and Michigan.
Wisconsin may not win by the same margin as Ohio State, but it has the talent to overpower its opponent and feel comfortable with a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
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NCAA Football Week 12 Betting Preview: Are Ohio State and Wisconsin on Upset Alert?
College Football Week 12 Betting Preview.
An action packed Week 12 NCAA football schedule features 16 games involving teams ranked in the AP Top 25. That includes two massive Big Ten battles as Ohio State hosts Indiana and Wisconsin visits Northwestern. With betting odds from the DraftKings Sportsbook - here is a breakdown and picks for those two matchups that are scheduled for Saturday, November 21, 2020.
Are you looking for PREMIUM picks for this week's college football slate?
SI PRO subscribers can get real-time betting alerts whenever information comes in. Become an SI PRO member and start "Beating the Books" today!
The Vegas Whispers sharp information has continued to dominate the sportsbooks, going 186-128-2 overall.
The information received from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas Insider, is currently 19-15 ATS on NCAA College Football for all SI PRO members.
No. 9 Indiana at No. 3 Ohio State (-20.5) | TOTAL: 66.5.
Undefeated teams clash when No. 3 Ohio State hosts No. 9 Indiana in a fight for first place in the Big Ten East division. Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. The Buckeyes (3-0) return to action after their game against Maryland was cancelled last week due to COVID-19 issues. A juggernaut on offense, Ohio State opened the season with wins against Nebraska (52-17), Penn State (38-25) and Rutgers (49-27) in their last game on November 7.
Building off an 8-5 record last year, which was the Hosiers’ first winning season since 2007, Indiana enters this contest with a 4-0 record. Playing well on both sides of the ball, the Hosiers have posted wins against Penn State (36-35 OT), Rutgers (37-21), Michigan (38-21) and they shutout Michigan State (24-0) last week. Since a 27-27 tie, way back in 1990, Indiana has lost 25 straight games against Ohio State. That includes a 51-10 loss on their home turf last season.
Two of the best quarterbacks in the country will be on the field in this contest. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. has completed 61% of his passes for 1,070 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Ohio State QB Justin Fields has completed an eye-popping 87% of his pass attempts for 908 yards with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Hosiers have outscored their opponents by a 135-77 combined count while the Buckeyes have a 139-69 margin of victory.
While Ohio State is strong across the board, the secondary is an area Indiana can attack. The Buckeyes have just one interception through the first three games. Led by CB Jaylin Williams, the Hosiers defense has 10 interceptions through four games. Indiana has scored 37.8% of their points on offense after creating a turnover. Two fumbles lost are the only turnovers Ohio State has committed this season. Fearing a backdoor cover - I like the Buckeyes first half line.
Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes (-10.5) First Half at DraftKings.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook – Game Time 1:00 p.m. ET.
No. 10 Wisconsin (-7.5) at No. 19 Northwestern | TOTAL: 43.5.
A fight for first place is also on tap in the Big Ten West division when No. 10 Wisconsin visits No. 19 Northwestern. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois. The Badgers (2-0) have played just twice this year, due to COVID-19 issues, but posted blowout wins in both games. Wisconsin opened their season with a 45-7 win against the Illinois who scored a fumble return TD. Following two cancelled contests, the Badgers blasted Michigan 49-11 last week.
Northwestern (4-0) has been one of the more surprising teams this season. The Wildcats were 1-8 in Big Ten play last year and finished with a 3-9 overall record. Northwestern posted wins against Maryland (43-3), Iowa (21-20) and Nebraska (21-13) before defeating Purdue 27-20 on the road last week. The Wildcats scored two unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns but lost 24-15 to the Badgers in Wisconsin last season. Northwestern was a -23.5 point underdog in that game.
While it’s a small sample size, Wisconsin has shown they can beat teams through the air or on the ground. In their win against Illinois, freshman QB Graham Mertz completed 20-of-21 passes for 248 yards and five touchdowns. The run game took over against Michigan last week as the Badgers racked up 341 total rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Wisconsin defense has been rock solid as they have allowed just 437 total yards and one TD during two contests.
Northwestern has been grinding it out on the ground with 191 rushing attempts and 73 pass attempts. The aerial attack kicked into gear last week as senior QB Peyton Ramsey tossed three touchdown passes to senior WR Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman. The Wildcats are allowing 14 points per game but the Badgers offense is a big step up for the Cats defense. Wisconsin posted big first half leads against Illinois (28-7) and Michigan (28-0) and I will follow that trend here.
Pick: Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5) First Half at DraftKings.

College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 12, 2020: Proven model backing Wisconsin, Mississippi State.
SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated every Week 12 college football game 10,000 times.
Since 1994, the Indiana Hoosiers have only been to four bowl games and the program hasn't won a bowl game since the 1991 Copper Bowl. However, head coach Tom Allen has breathed new life into the Hoosiers after leading them to an 8-5 season in 2019 and then rising to No. 9 in the AP Top 25 with a 4-0 start in 2020. On Saturday, the Hoosiers will play one of the biggest games in program history as they travel to Ohio Stadium for a noon ET kickoff as 20.5-point underdogs in the Week 12 college football odds from William Hill Sportsbook against No. 3 Ohio State.
That's one of two massive Big Ten games between ranked opponents on Saturday as No. 10 Wisconsin travels to suburban Chicago to take on No. 19 Northwestern in a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Week 12 college football lines list the Badgers as 7.5-point favorites in that game, while No. 7 Cincinnati is a 5.5-point road favorite against UCF in another game with potential College Football Playoff implications. Before making any Week 12 college football picks on those games or others, be sure to see the latest college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,900 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is a sizzling 39-21 on all top-rated picks through 11 weeks of the 2020 college football season, returning over $1,000 in profit already. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds for Week 12 from William Hill and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 12 college football predictions.
One of the top Week 12 college football picks the model is recommending: No. 10 Wisconsin (-7.5) covers against No. 19 Northwestern in a 3:30 p.m ET matchup of Big Ten contenders. Both teams are unbeaten both straight up and against the spread. But while Northwestern has won three straight by one score, the Badgers have blown out their two opponents, blasting Illinois 45-7 in their opener, and then returning from a couple weeks off due to COVID-19 last week to destroy Michigan 49-11.
Freshman quarterback Graham Mertz has taken care of the ball this year (7 TDs, 0 INTs), while Wisconsin's rushing attack racked up a whopping 341 yards and five touchdowns against the Wolverines. Tight end Jake Ferguson is also off to a blistering start with four touchdowns in just two games. SportsLine's model sees this as a double-digit win for the Badgers as they pick up the cover in well over 50 percent of simulations.
However, as the Mississippi State offense struggles, the defense has played opportunistically and generated five turnovers last week to help earn a 24-17 win over Vanderbilt two weeks ago. Tyrus Wheat had a sack, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in that victory to move Mississippi State to 2-4 on the year and he'll look to create similar issues for a Georgia offense that has turned the ball over 10 times in its last four games and is now turning to its third starting quarterback of the season with JT Daniels in line to start on Saturday night.
The model predicts that Mississippi State forces a couple of turnovers and gets over 200 yards of passing offense, moving the ball just well enough to keep Georgia from dominating all the possession. That's why the model predicts that Mississippi State covers in over 50 percent of simulations, with the under 44.5 also hitting nearly 60 percent of the time.
How to make Week 12 college football picks.
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in the top-10 showdown between Ohio State vs. Indiana and every other Week 12 FBS matchup, and it is also predicting a major upset in the Pac-12. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 12? And which Pac-12 underdog will pull off a shocking upset? Check out the latest Week 12 college football odds for some of the week's most notable games below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,900 in profit over the past four-plus seasons, and find out.

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