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п»їNFL odds, lines, spreads, picks, predictions for Week 10, 2020: Proven model loving Buccaneers, Saints.
SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 10 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results.
The Pittsburgh Steelers escaped a serious threat to their undefeated record last week, escaping Dallas with a 24-19 victory to improve to 8-0 for the first time in the franchise's storied history. Pittsburgh can run it to 9-0 this week when they welcome talented rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are 10-point underdogs according to the latest NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook, one of the largest NFL spreads of the week and one of just two to reach double-digits.
Can Pittsburgh stay unbeaten and improve its hold on the AFC North, or can the Bengals spring the upset? And which games in Week 10 hold the most favorable matchups for your NFL bets? All of the Week 10 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 10 NFL picks now.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,600 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago.
It's off to a strong 16-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 10 on an incredible 112-73 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest Week 10 NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.
Top NFL predictions for Week 10.
One of the top Week 10 NFL predictions the model recommends: The visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) cover as favorites against the Carolina Panthers. The Buccaneers are 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home, while quarterback Tom Brady is still shining for the Buccaneers, throwing for 2,398 yards and 20 touchdowns against seven interceptions.
On the other sideline, the Panthers welcomed back superstar running back Christian McCaffrey last week, who romped to 151 yards of total offense and two touchdowns in a last-second, 33-31 loss to the Chiefs. McCaffrey, who had missed several games with a high ankle sprain, injured his shoulder against the Chiefs and is out Sunday.
SportsLine's model projects that Brady outplays Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and that the Panthers struggle to reach 100 rushing yards without McCaffrey. The model also says Tampa Bay covers in well over 50 percent of simulations. The over (51) has plenty of value because it hits almost 60 percent of the time.
Another one of the top Week 10 NFL predictions from the model: The Saints (-10) cover against the 49ers. After picking up four consecutive wins by one score, New Orleans left no doubt against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last Sunday night. Drew Brees threw four touchdown passes as the Saints blasted their division foe by five touchdowns to take a half-game lead in the NFC South.
Now, the Saints will look to keep it rolling against a Niners squad that limps into town with a lengthy injury list. San Francisco is 2-4 overall and against the spread in its last six games and will start backup quarterback Nick Mullens against a New Orleans defense that just picked off Brady three times.
SportsLine's model gives Mullens a higher probability of throwing an interception than a touchdown, while Brees throws for over 250 yards and two scores as the Saints cover in well over 50 percent of simulations. The over (49) also has value since the teams combine to score 54 total points.
How to make Week 10 NFL picks.
The model has also made the call on every other game on the Week 10 NFL schedule, and has identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 10? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,600 on its top-rated NFL picks.
NFL odds, matchups for Week 10.
Sunday, Nov. 15.
Washington Football Team vs. Detroit Lions (-3, 46.5)


NFL picks, predictions for Week 10: Seahawks rebound vs. Rams; Steelers survive Bengals; Bears keep reeling.
Week 10 of the NFL season is here, and the schedule leaves a little to be desired.
There are only three matchups between teams with winning records, and that starts Thursday with the AFC South showdown between the Colts and Titans. The early set of Sunday games is brutal, but the afternoon features two more excellent matchups.
The Rams and Seahawks meet in a NFC West showdown, and the Bills and Cardinals face off in a battle between quarterbacks Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. Our attention also is on the Vikings-Bears matchup on Monday Night Football. Will the Vikings be able to stay hot in the division and perhaps re-ignite a playoff run?
Last Week: 10-4 Season: 51-32.
With that as the mind, below are our picks and predictions for Week 10:
NFL picks, predictions for Week 10.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-1)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX/NFL Network.
AFC South rivals meet with the division lead on the line, and the Colts' second-ranked run defense will be a test for Tennessee. The Titans have lost the last two meetings at home, but they win a close on here.
Pick: Titans 24, Colts 22.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Browns had a bye week to get healthy, and Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson can put on a show knowing both pass defenses are weak. The difference will be Houston's inability to stop the run. Cleveland gets back on the winning track, but the Texans can steal this game if Mayfield doesn't protect the football.
Pick: Browns 34, Texans 27.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-14)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Packers are huge favorites at home, and lines like that are risky given how up-and-down Green Bay's defense has been. Jacksonville can slow the game down a little bit with James Robinson at running back, but they can't keep with the Packers' offense for four quarters.
Pick: Packers 33, Jaguars 19.
Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Alex Smith threw three interceptions in the loss to the Giants last week, but he also had two 100-yard receivers in Terry McLaurin and Cam Sims. Matthew Stafford threw two picks last week, too, and the veteran quarterbacks will play a typical wild game as a result. There is a potential upset here.
Pick: Washington 27, Lions 24.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at New York Giants.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Eagles had a bye week to prepare for the rematch with the Giants, and Carson Wentz had 359 passing yards in the first meeting. New York kept the first meeting close and have improved in the running game, but Philadelphia increases its lead in a weak division with a season sweep.
Pick: Eagles 28, Giants 23.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at Carolina Panthers.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Tom Brady bounced back to beat the Panthers after the first loss to the Saints in Week 1, and he will do it again here. Carolina's Christian McCaffrey suffered yet another injury, and that's going to make it that much more difficult to keep up. Antonio Brown scores his first TD of the season, too.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 20.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
Derek Carr has averaged just 138 passing yards per game in the Raiders' last two victories, but they have been able to run the ball effectively. Denver's Drew Lock has established connections with rookie receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, and we're going to try an upset for the second straight week. If the Broncos can run the ball, then it will happen.
Pick: Broncos 29, Raiders 27.
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS.
Can Tua Tagovailoa lead a playoff run? It's starting to become a real question, and it will be amplified when the Dolphins win here. Miami's defense has allowed 17 points or less the last three weeks. That's the difference against rookie Justin Herbert.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Chargers 24.
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Bills upset the Seahawks in Week 9 and continue that momentum on the road against the Cardinals. The matchup between Josh Allen and Kyler Murray should be fun. It's a game where one turnover could be the difference, and Buffalo has the better turnover margin. Buffalo pulls out the victory in a thriller.
Pick: Bills 28, Cardinals 25.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
The Seahawks' defense remains an issue, and the Rams had a bye week to scheme for a key NFC West showdown. Los Angeles has won three of the last four meetings, all of which have been decided by five points or less. This time, Russell Wilson leads the game-winning drive.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Rams 28.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-9)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
The 49ers were riddled by injuries and COVID-19 issues, and this game likely won't resemble last year's classic shootout. Drew Brees, who hasn't thrown an interception in the Saints' last three games, pushes New Orleans to a sixth straight victory.
Pick: Saints 35, 49ers 19.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
A nasty AFC North rivalry is renewed, and the Bengals are playing better around Joe Burrow. Ben Roethlisberger returned from a knee injury to lead the Steelers past Dallas. Burrow has taken 14 sacks in three division games, and Pittsburgh leads the league with four sacks per game. That's the difference.
Pick: Steelers 31, Bengals 20.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New England Patriots.
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
Lamar Jackson led a 37-20 blowout against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football last season, and the Ravens jumped out to a 17-0 lead in that game. New England does not have enough offense to keep up, even if Bill Belichick can throw in a few wrinkles that slow the Ravens down this time.
Pick: Ravens 28, Patriots 18.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.
The Vikings are starting to climb back into the fringe of the NFC playoff race after back-to-back division wins. The Bears are trying to break a three-game losing streak. Kirk Cousins is 0-3 as a starter with Minnesota against Chicago, but he breaks that streak in a close game with the help of Dalvin Cook.


NFL picks, predictions against the spread for Week 10.
Week 9 wasn't the best week of NFL picks and predictions against the spread. While some favorites fell, others failed to cover against far lesser opponents.
The only thing to do from here is to take it one week at a time, getting better with our game choices starting in Week 10. This week offers some really tight lines with only three teams favored by more than a touchdown, with plenty more one-possession games ahead.
Stats of the Week.
Week 9 straight up: 8-5.
Week 9 against the spread: 6-7.
Season straight up: 86-45.
Season against the spread: 80-51.
Here's diving into our latest round of pigskin prognostications with the fearless forecast for the next 14 matchups on the schedule:
Sunday, 4:05p.m. ET, CBS.
The Bills' defense is starting to find its stride in attack mode against the pass and the Cardinals won't exploit their issues vs.the traditional running game enough. Josh Allen will get to pick apart a bad secondary, buying time with his legs and pushing the ball downfield with his arm. Kyler Murray will do his best to answer with his own brand of running and aggressive downfield throwing, but Allen will get a few more big plays from his receivers. Expect another high-scoring game in the desert, with Arizona barely falling at home again.
Pick :Bills win 38-34.
Thursday, 8:20p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network and Amazon Prime Video.
The Colts are a hard team to figure out every week because they like to win ugly battles of attrition based on running game and defense, hoping they will get more big plays than mistakes from Philip Rivers. The Titans take a simliar approach, but they have more offensive explosivness playing off the running of Derrick Henry from Ryan Tannehill. Rivers is limited throwing; Tannehill will take more successful deep shots and the Titans get enough field goals.
Pick :Titans win 23-20 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 4:25p.m. ET, Fox.
The Seahawks need a win to hold their slimming lead in the NFC West. The Rams will be helped by having a bye to get a little healther. Look for Sean McVay's team to come out throwing a la the Bills, knowing Seattle has limited coverage answers for Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. Jared Goff will get the ball out quickly as the Rams will also control the clock. On the other side, Aaron Donald will get in the face of Russell Wilson and Jalen Ramsey can help contain DK Metcalf. Los Angeles' defensive edge makes the difference.
Pick :Rams win 30-27and cover the spread.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
Mike Tomlin can't be pleased at how the Steelers' anemic running game and reeling defense almost cost them a game against the Cowboys. Pittsburgh will be motivated to take out the Dallas frustration on Cincinnati. The Steelers will keep shutting down the run and their pass rush will keep Joe Burrow from exploiting their defensive baksenough for big plays, with the front edge/back middlecombination of T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick causing problems. James Conner rebounds and the Steelers' passing game gets to comfortable tee-off mode.
Pick :Steelers win 31-17 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
Baker Mayfield will need to clear COVID-19 list protocols to play after the bye, but regardless, the Texans have good offensive momentum coming in with Deshaun Watson. He can help elude the pass rush of Myles Garrett and will like the matchups outside to deliver more big plays to Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks. Cleveland will definitely go run-heavy with Kareem Hunt but eventually Mayfield will need to match Watson's efficiency for the Browns to avoid the shocker. Look for former Brown Duke Johnson Jr. also to have a big role in upending his former team late.
Pick :Texans win 27-24.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
Let's watch the health of Matthew Stafford, who was knocked out of the Vikings game. Meanwhile, WFT will need to turn to Alex Smith at quarterback with Kyle Allen suffering his ankle injury. Washington's pass defense will keep it in the game, but Detroit's run defense also will get a nice break here. This feels like a sloppy game with little scoring as both teams have little firepower. Flip a coin and go with the hosts in Ford Field, but a Chase Daniel-Smith duel can tilt this toward WFT.
Pick :Lions win 20-19 but fail to cover the spread.
Sunday,1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Packers are coming off a long week, having routed the 49ers in San Francisco in Week 9. The Jaguars got an offensivespark from rookie quarterback Jake Luton but this is his first road start and the Packers are built better to rush the passer than stop the run. Fellow rookie James Robinson's running will keep the Jaguars in the game early, but Jacksonville will eventually face a big deficit with no answers for Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams, before worrying about Aaron Jones back at full strength.
Pick Tongueackers win 38-21 and cover the spread.
Sunday,1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Eagles are coming off a bye. The Giants are coming off a much-needed close win in Washington. They won't be playing another one-point affair with Philadelphia getting healthier everywhere and New York facing a strong pass rush for Daniel Jones. The Eagles will be close to full juice with their offensive line and their skill players around Carson Wentz.
Pick :Eagles win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Sunday,1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Bucs will not be posting another dud and the Panthers are bound for a letdown after pushing the Chiefs to the brink. The Panthers look like they will be without Christian McCaffrey again, right after getting him back. Tampa Bay will be smart to turn back more to the running game to ease the pressure on Tom Brady and set up more favorable downfield play-action shots to their downfield receivers. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown make up for the Saints game while Teddy Bridgewater gets overwhelmed by the blitz with no CMC.
Pick :Buccaneers win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 4:05p.m. ET, CBS.
The Raiders will do their best to run on Denver but that's one of strength of Vic Fangio's defense. Derek Carr is playing very well and will stay aggressive looking for big plays inside and outside. Drew Lock is also finding his groove with his Broncos' weapons and will lock into his third straight shootout in Las Vegas. He'll also get good help from the ground game to set up some good work to the middle of the field.
Pick :Raiders win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Sunday, 4:05p.m. ET, CBS.
Tua Tagovailoa, taken No. 5 overall to be the Dolphins' franchise quarterback, is 2-0 as a starter. Justin Herbert, taken one pick later to be the Chargers' franchise quarterback, is somehow 1-6 as a starter despite his consistent, elite rookie passing. Tagovailoa is being lifted by a big playmaking defense that keeps getting better every week under Brian Flores. The Chargers' defense is starting to look equally lost against run and pass because of injuries and other issues. This is a very tough long road trip. Tagovailoa gets more help, protects the ball well while Herbert is forced into big mistakes that offset his big plays.
Pick Big Grinolphins win 27-24and cover the spread.
Sunday, 4:25p.m. ET, Fox.
The 49ers will get some offensive help back at wide receiver but they still need to replace running back and tight end by committee. Despite his struggles with turnovers, Nick Mullens will get another start filling in for Jimmy Garoppolo over C.J. Beathard. The 49ers' pass rush isn't the same without Nick Bosa and they have too many issues in coverage at both linebacker and the secondary. Look for Drew Brees to keep spreading the ball around quickly and the Saints' defense will continue to be stout against the run, setting up pressure on Mullens in catchup mode.
Pick :Saints win 30-17 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 8:20p.m. ET, NBC.
Lamar Jackson is struggling to pass and isn't getting much help from the traditional running game. The Patriots drafted and rebuilt their defense to better contain running QBs. They will work to take away that element and force the Ravens to grind out yards, not worrying much about big plays downfield. The Patriots, unfortunately, can't trust Cam Newton to be in comfortable passing or running situations against the Ravens' defense, either.
Pick :Ravens win 20-14but fail to cover the spread.
Monday, 8:15p.m. ET, ESPN.
The Vikings have been rolling by feeding Dalvin Cook, both taking pressure of Kirk Cousins and making life easier on a defense having major secondary issues. It's much easier to run on the Bears than force throwing on them, which plays into the hands of Mike Zimmer's game plan. The Bears will have some success throwing with Nick Foles to Allen Robinson and others, but they will be too one-dimensional with Foles feeling enough heat to make more mistakes.
Pick :Vikings win 23-20 and cover the spread.


NFL Week 10 game picks: Rams top Seahawks; Vikings over Bears.
Around The NFL Editor.
Copied!
Gregg Rosenthal went 8-5 on his predictions for Week 9 of the 2020 NFL season, bringing his total record to 83-48-1. How will he fare in Week 10? His picks are below.
SUNDAY, NOV. 15.
Philadelphia Eagles 24, New York Giants 20.
The Eagles have played one game since beating the Giants. A rematch so soon should favor the better-coached team, but which team is that? The Eagles are far more talented with Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders on track to return and a stout defensive line well-suited to stop the Giants' steadily improving power run game.
Green Bay Packers 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 17.
The Jaguars have the NFL's worst defense and the second-hardest remaining schedule, which is a recipe for 1-15. Their rookie quarterback, Jake Luton, did not play scared last week, but he got away with some turnover-worthy plays that the Packers can capitalize on.
Washington Football Team 24, Detroit Lions 21.
Alex Smith transitioned last week from the remarkable story phase of his comeback to the he still looks like an NFL quarterback(!) stage. Now he gets a chance for a win that could start the counting the days phase of the Matt Patricia era.
Cleveland Browns 26, Houston Texans 24.
The potential return of Nick Chubb comes just in time for him to face a Texans run defense that has helped ruin Deshaun Watson's season. These teams are close to equal, despite their records, but those records serve as a reminder that the NFL is not all about the quarterback. I trust the Browns' lines and coaches more.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33, Carolina Panthers 27Р’.
Tampa Bay ranks dead last in Football Outsiders' variance metric, an indication that no one knows which Bucs team will show up. That's a concern against a Panthers offense with many similarities to the Saints attack that just took Tampa apart. I'm still picking talent over scheme because of Carolina's poor pass rush.
Los Angeles Chargers 27, Miami Dolphins 24Р’.
The Dolphins are incredibly thin at running back. Same story at receiver after Preston Williams' injury. This only further exacerbates the talent deficiency Miami has Sunday, which makes this the toughest game to pick all week. A Fins win would be a monument to how much coaching situational football and special teams matter, but I think п»їJustin Herbertп»ї is simply going to play too well to lose one of these weeks -- and he's still the rookie QB I'd roll with in this matchup.
Las Vegas Raiders 27, Denver Broncos 23.
Veteran free-agent cast-offs like п»їDevontae Bookerп»ї and п»їNelson Agholorп»ї making noise is a sign that Jon Gruden's system is working. He's making players better. The Broncos' offense, despite all my high hopes, still plays like less than the sum of its parts, with scant improvement since п»їDrew Lockп»ї returned to the lineup.
Buffalo Bills 34, Arizona Cardinals 31Р’.
The Bills' defense probably is better than the numbers suggest; just check the track record and talent. The Cardinals' defense probably isn't as good as the numbers suggested; just check the opposing quarterbacks Arizona has faced. With John Brown healthy again, the Bills are the last team that a defense short on cornerbacks wants to face.
New Orleans Saints 31, San Francisco 49ers 20.
This rematch of a 2019 classic doesn't have the same juice with the Zombie Niners involved. The score prediction could change depending on who plays for San Francisco, but Kyle Shanahan should have more players available after a brutal short week with COVID complications last time out.


NFL Week 10 odds, picks: Lamar Jackson blows out Patriots in primetime, Tua gets edge over Justin Herbert.
Here's a look at some of the better wagers heading into Week 10.
And just like that, we're in Week 10. The only thing that may be crazier than the fact that we're more than halfway through the 2020 regular season is that the undefeated Steelers nearly have as many wins (eight) as the entire NFC East (nine). Pittsburgh did give themselves a scare last week, however, after nearly being upset at the hands of Garrett Gilbert and the Dallas Cowboys. While they were able to walk away with a win, this game wasn't so kind to those -- including yours truly -- who looked at the Steelers -13.5 as a smash play given Dallas' troubles. Yes, we got the straight-up win correct, but the cover was out the window pretty quickly.
That brings us to our record from last week, which was a mixed bag at 7-7 ATS and 8-6 SU. Strong calls included taking the points with the Saints, Jets, Panthers while laying 2.5 with the Ravens against Indy. Some of our misses were the Cardinals falling to the Dolphins, Washington failing to cover against the Giants, and, of course, those Steelers keeping it close in Dallas.
As we turn the page to Week 10, there are a number of games that catch my eye and what better way to get started than to dive into my five locks of the week? Let's get it.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 10? Pete Prisco and R.J. White join host Will Brinson to make their best bets and break down every game on the Pick Six Podcast; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Locks of the Week.
Baltimore at New England.
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
The Patriots were able to edge out a win against the Jets on Monday Night Football with a game-winning field goal by Nick Folk. While it was a thrilling last-second victory, the fact that New England was on the brink of a fifth-straight loss against the winless Jets speaks volumes as to where they are in 2020. Because of that, it also shouldn't be a surprise to learn that they are a home dog for the first time since 2014. They now face a Ravens teams that should handle Cam Newton and the Pats rather easily. While Lamar Jackson isn't playing at the MVP clip he was a season ago, his Ravens have been a bit more favorable to bettors in 2020. Baltimore has a better cover percentage and point differential through eight games than they did in 2019. As for Jackson, he's been stellar on the road in his career, owning an 11-3-1 ATS record. The Patriots are also 0-3 ATS in primetime this season.
Projected score : Baltimore 24, New England 10 My pick : Baltimore -7.
Tampa Bay at Carolina.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Anyone else getting a little dГ©jГ  vu? For the second time this season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be facing the Carolina Panthers after a double-digit loss to the New Orleans Saints. it happened in Week 2 after the Bucs were blown out by New Orleans in the opener and is on the docket once again in Week 10. Tom Brady's club looked lost in Week 9, only managing three points as the quarterback chucked a trio of interceptions. While I do expect the offense to be better and the Bucs to rebound with a win, it'll be close enough to where I'll gladly take the points with Carolina. Since Week 3, the Panthers are 5-0 ATS as an underdog and Teddy Bridgewater has been fantastic in this setting as well. In his career, Bridgewater owns a 20-4 ATS record as an underdog, the best by any quarterback since 2000 (min. 10 starts).
Minnesota at Chicago.
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This is a tale of two NFC North clubs going in different directions. After starting off the season at 5-1, the Bears have lost three-straight and look more like the middling team that most expected they'd be. As for Minnesota, they are rolling into Week 10 with back-to-back wins after coming out of the gate with a 1-5 record. That's all thanks to Dalvin Cook coming back from injury with his hair on fire. The back has totaled six touchdowns, is averaging over seven yards a carry and has 478 yards from scrimmage over the last two games. While he has helped Minnesota get SU wins, Mike Zimmer's club has been strong staying in games as of late, owning a 5-1 ATS record in their last six contests. With the Bears offense looking lost with Nick Foles under center, I expect the Vikings to grab and early lead on Monday night and hammer Chicago's defense with Cook the rest of the way.
Projected score : Minnesota 17, Chicago 13 My pick : Minnesota -2.5.
L.A. Chargers at Miami.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Given that Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa were taken back-to-back in the 2020 NFL Draft, these two quarterbacks are going to be linked throughout their respective careers. For the first time, we'll now be able to see them go head-to-head when the Chargers travel to Miami to face the Dolphins. This is the first time that Tagovailoa will be a favorite, entering this game 2-0 as a starter. The fifth overall pick came out of his shell in Week 9, throwing for 248 yards and two touchdowns in a win against the Cardinals. While Herbert has been phenomenal to begin his Chargers career, L.A. has found ways to lose in dramatic fashion, including last week when the young quarterback threw the game-winning touchdown, but his receiver wasn't able to fully come down with it, and the play was overturned a called an incomplete pass. This game will be extremely close and both quarterbacks will play well, but I side with a Dolphins defense that has been superb over the last few weeks. Miami also rolls into this game covering in four-straight.
Projected score : Miami 27, L.A. Chargers 24 My pick : Miami -2.5.
Jaguars at Packers.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
With this spread still under two-touchdowns, I don't know how you can't love the Packers in this spot. Since Matt LaFleur arrived, Green Bay is tied with the Chiefs for the best cover percentage (67%) in the entire NFL. Aaron Rodgers continues to play at an MVP level and once they get a lead, Aaron Jones has proved he's not only healthy but can add to the scoring output. The Jaguars are 0-4-1 ATS over the last three seasons when facing a team that is multiple games above .500 and are averaging 8.4 points per game over that stretch.
Projected score : Green Bay 30, Jacksonville 14 My pick : Green Bay -13.
Rest of the Bunch.
Houston at Cleveland Projected score : Cleveland 27, Houston 21 My pick : Cleveland -3.
Washington at Detroit Projected score : Lions 21. Washington 14 My pick : Lions -3.
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants Projected score : Philadelphia 23, N.Y. Giants 17 My pick : Philadelphia -3.5.
Denver at Las Vegas Projected score : Las Vegas 23, Denver 17 My pick : Las Vegas -5.
Buffalo at Arizona Projected score : Arizona 33, Buffalo 27 My pick : Arizona -2.
Seattle at L.A. Rams Projected score : L.A. Rams 33, Seattle 28 My pick : L.A. Rams -1.5.
San Francisco at New Orleans Projected score : New Orleans 24, San Francisco 13 My pick : New Orleans -10.
Picks Record.
Against the spread in Week 9: 7-7 ATS overall: 69-61-2.
Straight up in Week 9: 8-6 SU overall: 86-45-1.




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