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weigh my football picks
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п»їNFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LV.
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2020): 9-6-1 (+$1,090) NFL Picks (Week 2, 2020): 13-3 (+$1,910) NFL Picks (Week 3, 2020): 12-4 (+$1,230) NFL Picks (Week 4, 2020): 6-7-2 (-$675) NFL Picks (Week 5, 2020): 9-5 (+$1,770) NFL Picks (Week 6, 2020): 5-9 (-$2,365) NFL Picks (Week 7, 2020): 6-7-1 (-$580) NFL Picks (Week 8, 2020): 9-5 (+$1,210) NFL Picks (Week 9, 2020): 3-11 (-$1,945) NFL Picks (Week 10, 2020): 5-8-1 (-$825) NFL Picks (Week 11, 2020): 3-11 (-$1,935) NFL Picks (Week 12, 2020): 10-6 (+$2,395) NFL Picks (Week 13, 2020): 6-9 (-$235) NFL Picks (Week 14, 2020): 10-6 (+$1,330) NFL Picks (Week 15, 2020): 6-9-1 (+$210) NFL Picks (Week 16, 2020): 11-5 (+$1,140) NFL Picks (Week 17, 2020): 8-7-1 (+$985) NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430) NFL Picks (Week 19, 2020): 3-1 (+$285) NFL Picks (Week 20, 2020): 2-0 (+$250)
NFL Picks (2020): 137-124-7 (+$3,815) NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200) NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845) NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300) NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780) NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215) NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885) NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825) NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445) NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335) NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880) NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235) NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105) NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585) If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ. Vegas betting action updated Feb. 2, 2:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Super Bowl LV Pick Chiefs at Buccaneers.
Get more free NFL picks for every game Doc's Sports.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 20, 2020): 2-0 (+$250) Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2020): 2-0 (+$400) Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2020): 0-0 ($0) Last Week Over-Under (Week 20, 2020): 0-2 ($0) Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 20, 2020): -$150.
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-124-6, 52.5% (+$3,815) 2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965) 2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515) 2020 Season Over-Under: 140-122-6, 53.4% ($0) 2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$225.
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215) 2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780) 2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300) 2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845) 2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475) 2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395) 2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670) 2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465) 2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595) 2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735) 2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0) 2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95) 2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640) 2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225) 2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275 2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510 2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495 2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715.
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100) 2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780) 2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040) 2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640) 2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,994-2,761-179, 52.0% (+$14,120) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 957-859-49 (52.7%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%) Career Over-Under: 2,462-2,416-66 (50.5%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.


Football Pick’em Picks.
2020 Pool Picks.
Based on years of research, our picks make you up to 10 times more likely to win your NFL pick’em pool.
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Learn More.
In a football pick'em pool you pick a series games each week, typically determined by your pool administrator The most popular format involves picking the winner of every NFL game You also may need to specify a number of confidence points for each of your picks, or some picks may be worth more than others The pool may offer prizes for the players with the highest total score at the end of the season, or for the top scoring players each week, or both If you just need to pick one team each week that has to win its game, you're looking for our NFL Survivor Picks product.
Increased Long Term Pool Profits. In most cases, our picks should help you win prizes in football pick'em pools 2x-10x as frequently as your average opponent. The more pools you play in and the higher the stakes, the more that edge is worth. Better Chance For Bragging Rights. Even if you don't win a prize, having a better shot to beat lots of your opponents, or even just one specific opponent (e.g. that boss or spouse of yours who thinks they know football), is worth a lot to some people. Time Savings. A lot of people want to participate in the camaraderie and profit opportunities of pick'em pools, but simply don't have hours to devote to weekly pick research. Our product can pay for itself in a week based on time saved alone. Decreased Nail Biting And Hair Pulling. Being human, you may find it hard to pick against teams you personally like, and you second guess half your decisions a minute after you make them. We strip out all the agony and bias from your pick making.
Thanks to this range of benefits, our customer base is quite diverse, and includes:
Hard core pick'em players looking for any incremental edge they can get Busy people who want to play at a high level, but value their free time Football experts looking to apply a more data-driven approach to pick making Football neophytes looking to instantly become perennial prize contenders.
We've developed proprietary computer models that simulate one-week and season long football pick'em contests These simulations not only forecast game results, but also use historical pick popularity data to project how all players in a given pool will make their picks Running millions of pool simulations gives us a deep understanding of the best picking strategies in many different scenarios Our system leverages that research to identify your best possible picks, based on data you enter about your specific pool Our algorithmic game predictions, which incorporate betting odds and objective stats, provide the foundation for our picks Picks are then customized for your pool's size, scoring system, payout structure, and (for season-long pools) your place in the standings and weeks left Our algorithmically customized pool picks are unique in the industry, and provide a substantial edge over generic "expert picks" from other sources.
We would be crazy to guarantee that or set that expectation.
Playing in football pick'em pools is less risky than playing the lottery, but it's still a huge gamble. In most pools, participants vie to win a prize that is many times what they paid to enter, all within a timeframe of days or weeks.
If sports pools were easy to win, we'd all be billionaires.
Even using our picks, you won't be expected to win any given pool. The math here is pretty simple. If you're an average competitor in a 25-person pool, for example, then you should expect to win that pool once every 25 years.
Using our picks, you might expect to win that pool once every five years or so. That's pretty amazing -- being about five times as good at winning pools than your average opponent.
Yet even having that huge an edge, you're still going to go years at a time not winning anything (and assuming you stick with it, paying for our picks every year along the way).
With patience and understanding, you would cash in on an amazing 400% profit on your pool entry fees in the long run if you won that pool every five years. That level of expected ROI blows away alternatives like investing in stocks or real estate.
But if you want to achieve it, you've got to have realistic expectations and an over-many-years perspective. Our pool picks are not going to do incredibly well every year -- but our growing, repeat customer base is just one indicator of their overall effectiveness.


Weigh my football picks.
"Point-weight pick 'em" or "confidence pick 'em" pools require perusing a selected number of NFL games per week, choosing a winner, and assigning a confidence rank to each selection.
The confidence rank is a specific value you assign to each game based on your belief or "confidence" that said pick will turn out correct. The higher the rank, the more confident you are in that team's chances of victory.
Point-weight pools can be conducted using either an outright-win formula, or they can be made more challenging by using point spreads. For the purposes of this article, we'll focus on outright-win point-weight pools.
Your initial thought in a confidence pool may be to simply select the biggest favorites each and every week. It would only make sense to place your highest confidence in the biggest favorite. Unfortunately, that strategy won't separate you from some of your competitors who are sure to opt for the exact same strategy.
So how do you gain separation from the pack?
The Contrarian Angle.
To be contrarian in a win-based confidence pick 'em pool, participants will ultimately have to pick a few upset winners. Taking New England to defeat San Francisco isn't worth much when everybody else has the same pick.
With Vegas spreads determining the favorite and underdog for each game, weekly spreads will undoubtedly influence your picks, and the picks of your fellow pool participants.
But after looking at results from the past five NFL seasons and the coordinating favorite and underdogs, as determined by the Vegas spread, there are a few week-to-week trends that pool players can use to their advantage going into this season.
This data that incorporates the most recent 1,285 NFL games indicates that specific stretches of the season are more or less prone to upsets and can be used by pool players to better decide when and how often to go contrarian.
The Numbers Say .
In terms of picking upsets, the past five seasons of results show that Weeks 1 through 4 actually rank as the best long-term stretch for contrarian and upset plays.
The upset percentage - defined as instances when an underdog determined by the Vegas spread comes out victorious - pins these four weeks with a win percentage between 33.5 and 37.5 percent. This opening stretch makes up four of the top eight upset-prone weeks.
Upon further reflection, this trend does seem relatively logical. Vegas, like the public, has little team knowledge and just preseason results to try and set accurate spreads. Early on, the terms "favorite" and "underdog" hold as little weight as they will all season.
As a result, pool participants should be more open to placing higher confidence choices in upset picks during the opening four weeks. This doesn't necessarily mean choosing the biggest upset each week, simply that players should be more tolerable of risk at this time.
When to Play it Safe.
On the other side of the coin, NFL results from the past five years also indicate certain times to play it safe. Following the logic of Vegas becoming increasingly accurate deeper into the season, favorites tend to fare better in the latter portion of the year. Should you still be in contention come Week 11, it is time to hedge your bets.
Since 2011, Weeks 11 through 14 rank as four of the top seven weeks to play it safe. This stretch of favorite favoritism sees all four of these weeks sport an upset percentage between 27.5 and 31.1 percent. Within this four-week stretch, Weeks 13 and 14 rank as two of the top three overall safest weeks.
From this data, pool players should pay greater respect to weekly spreads in the second half of the season and specifically between Weeks 11 and 14. As they say, "the house always wins," and it seems their ability to better predict outcomes increases during the second-half.
The Home Stretch.
For those lucky and skilled enough to be in contention in the final weeks of their confidence pick 'em pool, NFL results from the past five years can still be effective during this closing stretch.
For those wiling or forced to go against the grain in the final three weeks, Weeks 15 and 16 move back toward upsets, especially when compared to the favorite favoritism just discussed in Weeks 11-14.
Specifically, Week 15 ranks as third most upset-heavy week at 36.2 percent and Week 16 ranking sixth at 33.7.
Attempts to explain this late upset-spike can likely be attributed to looming playoff pressures. With playoff hopes on the line, underdog teams vying for a playoff spot are likely to be extra motivated near season's end.
At this juncture, point-weight pool players should re-adjust their confidence ranks to reflect the increased chance of an upset and must be cognizant of potential playoff implications.
The Anomaly that is Week 17.
The final week of the regular season is always a mixture of meaningless games and a series of interdependent games that decide crucial playoff scenarios. This dynamic often hypes upset picks as teams try to play spoiler or face a lackadaisical playoff-bound opponent that may be resting key starters.
But should pool players who need a big Week 17 be willing to place their confidence in a spoiler or underdog situation? The answer is actually a resounding "no," and a "no" that echoes louder than any other week.
Over the past five years, Week 17 actually ranks as the worst week for upsets. The upset percentage in Week 17 sits at exactly 15 percent, which is 11.7 percent worse than the second-closest week, Week 7, at 26.7 percent.
Though you may think Week 17 is more likely to breed crazy upsets, the past five years of results indicate you couldn't be more wrong.




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