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ncaa football picks for week 15
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п»їBud's Bets: College football gambling picks for Week 15.
Bud's Bets is my column about college football gambling.
I’ve had a strong few years including 55 percent against the spread in 2019 with an ROI of 5.1 percent.
My strategy has been pretty simple: Make my own numbers using a combination of public and private power ratings, plus my own manual adjustments based on personnel, injuries, and matchup knowledge.
With my numbers set, the next step is being ready to fire on Sunday when the numbers come out on Sunday or Monday. Betting before the professionals who want to wager tens of thousands per game is normally an advantage because I am getting in before the huge money comes in and moves the line. Lines tend to be sharper later in the week and most of my wagers are made early in the week.
Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250 to 500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.
In 2020, there is massive uncertainty with my strategy and all CFB betting. What might have been a great bet on Sunday or Monday might all of a sudden become a horrible wager on a Thursday if key players are rules out due to a positive test of contact tracing. Granted, the risk is equal on both sides of a game, but it’s still not a comfortable feeling. I have no idea how I will do this year.
William Hill Sports Book is a reliable place to find odds.
Strategy thoughts in an uncertain season.
I am playing fewer games this season. To counteract that loss of volume, I will be doing more second-half wagering and live wagering. I post these in the comments and will track these in a separate record because I am interested in seeing the difference in return between pre- and in-game wagers.
Questions?
I'll be answering any gambling related questions in the comment section throughout the week. Fire away. I'll discuss games each week in the comment section of Bud's Bets.
Season record.
Pre-Game: 92-87 (51%) ATS, -$628, -3.1% ROI.
In-game/live: 81-58 , $2032, 13.4% ROI.
Total: +$1404, 4.0% ROI.
Week 15 Wagers.
Pitt -6.5 at Georgia Tech. Pitt does allow too many explosive plays, but the Panthers have a huge edge with their defensive line over the Yellow Jacket offensive line.
Minnesota at Nebraska -8.5 . Nebraska is healthy and motivated to play and I have this power rated at 10.
Wisconsin at Iowa -2.5 . The Wisconsin offense simply does not hit enough explosive plays. I'll take Iowa in a likely defensive battle.
Miami (OH) -23 at Bowling Green. Bowling Green just lost by 28 to Akron. I just don't see it scoring on the Redhawks.


NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 15 Opening Line Report and Picks.
On Saturday, we witnessed the game of the year between BYU and Coastal Carolina.
At the beginning of the week, Coastal Carolina was going to welcome Liberty home in a game that would help Coastal Carolina in the rankings had they won.
Liberty had lost only one game, and that was to NC State, by a point. When Liberty had COVID issues, Coastal Carolina and BYU elected to face each other in the first game between two undefeated teams from different conferences this late in the year.
This was a blessing. Coastal Carolina upset BYU to keep their undefeated streak alive. The story is still being written.
Free $60 in Member College Football Picks No Obligation Click Here.
Coastal Carolina was projected to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt this season. Instead, they’ve got wins against Louisiana, Appalachian State and BYU. That’s wins against two ranked teams.
Where do we go from here?
Coastal Carolina will face Troy this weekend and then play Louisiana for the Sun Belt Championship. If Coastal wins both of these games, they should absolutely be considered for a New Year’s Six Bowl.
Many have given their opinions about college football as a whole. Some shared how these types of games are so much more exciting than blowouts in college football like LSU’s domination last year. And we all know Alabama is just going to dominate the rest of competition this year, right?
We stopped caring about if either of these teams were a power five team. As fans, we were just excited to see two undefeated teams play against each other. These teams showed passion and literally mouthed back at each other in a brawl at halftime.
These student athletes worked extremely hard to get ranked and to get recognized.
Nobody believes that Coastal Carolina can beat Alabama. But nobody believed that UMBC could beat Virginia in the NCAA Tournament in college basketball.
Maybe the NCAA should consider expanding their playoff by adding power-five champions and other teams that should belong like Coastal Carolina. They deserve a chance to win the national championship, even if they have no shot.
Coastal Carolina vs Troy (-12.5, 51.5): This can certainly be a letdown spot for Coastal Carolina. After coming off the biggest win in program history, they’ll take on a Troy team that has pulled off plenty of upsets in their rich history in college football. Troy has been inconsistent but is coming off a big win last week against South Alabama, 29-0 and seem to be back on track. The reality is that Appalachian State defeated Troy at home a week before the South Alabama game and won 47-10. Everyone’s a Coastal Carolina fan. We’re all rooting for Cinderella to make it to a New Year’s Bowl. Grayson McCall has star potential, and the defense has played lights outs. The more we count this team out, the more they win. Pick: Coastal Carolina.
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College football picks, predictions against the spread for every Week 15 top 25 game.
The final week of the college football regular season is here, and it has already been impacted by cancellations.
The Game between No. 3 Ohio State and Michigan, an American Athletic Conference matchup between No. 18 Tulsa and No. 17 Cincinnati and a SEC makeup game between No. 5 Texas A&M and Ole Miss have been canceled.
There are two games featuring teams ranked in the AP Top 25. No. 20 North Carolina plays at No. 9 Miami, and No. 25 Wisconsin plays at No. 19 Iowa.
Conference championship week is almost here, but this is a week for the playoff contenders to take care of business. SN picks every top 25 game against the spread each week. Here is a look at our track record this season:
Last week: 13-6 S/U, 8-11 ATS Overall: 153-44 S/U, 100-88 ATS Top 25: 143-39 S/U, 95-84 ATS.
Now, a look at our picks against the spread for Week 15:
Week 15 picks against the spread.
Saturday, Dec. 12.
No. 12 Georgia (-13) at Missouri.
The Tigers have been a pleasant surprise in the SEC under first-year coach Eli Drinkwitz. Georgia quarterback J.T. Daniels has thrown just one interception in two starts, but he will be tested by Missouri's pass defense, which ranks third in the SEC.
Pick: Georgia wins 30-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 9 Alabama (-31) at Arkansas.
The Crimson Tide are 7-2 ATS this season, and they have covered in five straight games. Alabama has won the past three meetings by an average of 32.3 points per game. Arkansas lost to Georgia by 27 and Florida by 28. Will the Crimson Tide tap the breaks in the second half ahead of the SEC championship game?
Pick: Alabama wins 44-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 13 Oklahoma (-12.5) at West Virginia.
The line has jumped up two points from its open, and the Sooners have one last tune-up before another Big 12 championship game. The Mountaineers are 2-2 ATS as an underdog, but they are coming off an ugly 42-6 loss to Iowa State.
Pick: Oklahoma wins 38-21 and COVERS the spread.
Illinois at No. 15 Northwestern (-13.5)
The Illini are 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season and just missed covering in a two-touchdown loss to the Wildcats last week. Northwestern has won the past five meetings by an average of 18.6 points per game. The Wildcats roll into the Big Ten championship game with momentum here.
Pick: Northwestern wins 31-15 and COVERS the spread.
Akron at No. 24 Buffalo (-32)
The Bulls averaged the most points in the FBS at 50.1 points per game, and over a normal full season running back Jaret Patterson would get more Heisman hype. This feels like Akron can put together a few scoring drives to offset the high spread. We would stay away if we could.
Pick: Buffalo wins 47-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 11 Coastal Carolina (-13.5) at Troy.
Coastal Carolina can complete a perfect season with two more victories, and it is best to just keep riding that wave. The Chanticleers are 8-2 ATS, and the Trojans lost in blowout fashion to BYU and Appalachian State this season.
Pick: Coastal Carolina wins 38-17 and COVERS the spread.
No. 20 North Carolina at No. 9 Miami (-3.5)
Miami will not play in the ACC championship game, but the Hurricanes are on track for a New Year's Day Six Bowl bid. The Tar Heels beat Miami 28-25 in a nail-biter in 2019. This one goes the other way.
Pick: Miami wins 35-31 and COVERS the spread.
No. 25 Wisconsin at No. 19 Iowa (-1.5)
Wisconsin's season has been derailed by COVID-19 pauses, and the offense sputtered in losses to Northwestern and Indiana. The Badgers have won four in a row in this series, however, and they pull out another one here in a nail-biter.
Pick: Wisconsin wins 21-20 in an UPSET.
LSU at No. 6 Florida (-24)
Florida has one more test before the SEC championship game against Alabama, and it's up against an LSU defense that allowed a total of 103 points in losses to the Crimson Tide and Auburn. How much will the Gators tack on? The line might come down a bit to add value, but it's a concern that Florida has not covered the past three weeks.
Pick: Florida wins 35-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 16 USC (-4) at UCLA.
USC remains unbeaten, and in any other season that would come with top-five billing or better. Clay Helton and Chip Kelly have split the past two meetings, and this one should be close considering how well the Bruins are playing.
Pick: USC wins 30-24 and COVERS the spread.
Utah at No. 21 Colorado (-1.5)
The Buffs are a surprise unbeaten team, and they have won two of those four games by double digits. Utah can spoil that on the road. It will come down to which quarterback — Sam Noyer or Jake Bentley — avoids the big mistake in the fourth quarter. The Utes pull a small upset here.
Pick: Utah wins 27-21 in an UPSET.
San Diego State at No. 14 BYU (-15)
BYU looks to bounce back after losing to Coastal Carolina, but the Cougars can cap off a 10-win season against the Aztecs. San Diego State lost by 10 to Colorado in its only game as an underdog this season. Zach Wilson tacks on big points in the home finale.
Pick: BYU wins 44-20 and COVERS the spread.


NCAA Football Week 15 Betting Preview: Lay the Points with Alabama and Northwestern?
College Football Week 15 Betting Preview.
Prior to playing Conference Championship games next weekend, No. 1 Alabama and No. 14 Northwestern are heavy favorites during Week 15 NCAA football action. The Crimson Tide battle the Arkansas Razorbacks on the road and the Wildcats end their regular season slate at home against the Illinois Fighting Illini.
With betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook - here is a breakdown and picks for those two matchups that are slated for Saturday, December 12th.
Are you looking for PREMIUM picks for this week's college football slate? SI PRO subscribers can get real-time betting alerts whenever information comes in. Become an SI PRO member and start "Beating the Books" today!
The Vegas Whispers sharp information continues to dominate the sportsbooks with a 197-132-2 overall record. The information received from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas Insider, is currently 22-18 ATS on NCAA College Football for all SI PRO members. F ollow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy.
No. 1 Alabama (-32) at Arkansas | TOTAL: 68.5.
Cruising along, as the top seed in the College Football Playoff rankings, No. 1 Alabama (9-0) visits Arkansas (3-6) on Saturday. Kickoff for this SEC West battle is slated for 12:00 p.m. ET at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The Crimson Tide has rolled over everyone in their path this season as they have outscored opponents by a combined 443-165 margin. That includes wins over Kentucky (63-3), Auburn (42-13) and LSU (55-17) during the last three games.
Arkansas opened their season with a 3-3 record but has lost three straight games. The Razorbacks were competitive in two of the three losses. They were blown out by Florida (63-35) on the road prior to losing close contests against LSU (27-24) at home and Missouri (50-48) on the road. Arkansas was up 40-26 against the Tigers last week but they were outscored 24-8 over the final 13 minutes of the game. The Razorbacks have lost 13 straight contests against the Crimson Tide.
Alabama is led by Heisman Trophy favorite Mack Jones who has racked up 3,113 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and just three interceptions. RB Najee Harris has 1,038 rushing yards and leads all non-quarterbacks with 20 touchdowns. DaVonta Smith is the top wide receiver in the Nation with 1,305 yards and 15 touchdowns. After giving up 115 points, during their first four games, the Alabama defence has allowed just 50 points over their last five contests.
Quarterback Feleipe Franks leads the Arkansas offense with 2,017 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. Franks is questionable to start after sitting out last week with a rib injury. KJ Jefferson was the Razorbacks starter against Missouri and he completed 18-of-33 pass attempts for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Arkansas lost 65-31 to Alabama two years ago and 48-7 last year. The Tide offense will continue to roll and the defense will seal the deal.


College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 15, 2020: Proven model backing Miami, Auburn.
SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated every Week 15 college football game 10,000 times.
Underdogs made some noise last week in college football as the Indiana Hoosiers went on the road and shocked the Wisconsin Badgers. The Hoosiers were 14-point underdogs but earned an impressive 14-6 victory with backup QB Jack Tuttle under center. Coastal Carolina also pulled off an upset as a double-digit underdog against the visiting BYU Cougars. In Conference USA, Marshall closed as a 23.5-point favorite over Rice, but the Thundering Herd fell flat in a 20-0 loss.
This week Michigan State is a 14.5-point underdog in the Week 15 college football odds from William Hill Sportsbook against Penn State, a team the Spartans have beaten in five of their last seven meetings. Can the Spartans pull off the upset on the road, or should you look elsewhere for your college football bets? Before locking in any Week 15 college football picks on that game or others, be sure to see the latest college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is a sizzling 50-31 on all top-rated picks through 14 weeks of the 2020 college football season, returning almost $700 in profit already. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds for Week 15 from William Hill and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 15 college football predictions.
One of the top Week 15 college football picks the model is recommending: No. 10 Miami (FL) (-3) covers at home against North Carolina in a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday. The one-loss Hurricanes still have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff, but they'll need to win convincingly in this one to remain in that conversation. They've won and covered in two straight, including as 14.5-point favorites over Duke in an impressive 48-0 blowout in their last outing.
UNC, meanwhile, has put up big offensive numbers but has struggled defensively. The Tar Heels are also just 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Miami quarterback D'Eriq King throws for almost 300 yards and three touchdowns in the simulations as the Hurricanes cover in well over 60 percent of simulations. The under (67.5), meanwhile, hits almost 60 percent of the time.
Another one of the top Week 15 college football predictions from the model: Auburn (-6.5) gets the win and cover against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a SEC West showdown at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The Tigers have dominated this series over the years, winning 14 of their last 19 matchups against the Bulldogs.
Auburn's Bo Nix is a dual-threat quarterback who continues to disrupt defensive game plans with his running ability. In fact, Nix enters Saturday's matchup having scored a rushing touchdown in four of his last five games. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry last week against Texas A&M and scored two rushing touchdowns in Auburn's 31-20 loss.
Mississippi State, meanwhile, limps into the contest having lost six of its last seven games. The Bulldogs are averaging just 18.3 points per game this season, which doesn't bode well for Mississippi State on Saturday. Nix is projected to account for well over 250 total yards and two touchdowns in the simulations, while no MSU receiver tops 50 receiving yards as the Tigers cover the spread in nearly 70 percent of simulations.
How to make Week 15 college football picks.
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other Week 15 FBS matchup, and it is calling for an upset in the ACC in a game where the line is way off. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 15? And which underdog should you be all over? Check out the latest Week 15 college football odds for some of the week's most notable games below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $3,500 in profit over the past four-plus seasons, and find out.




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