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week 5 football picks 2021
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п»їNFL football pool, pick'em, office pool, confidence picks for Week 5, 2020: Back the 49ers.
SportsLine's advanced computer model locked in the top NFL office pool picks for Week 5.
The Kansas City Chiefs are off to a perfect 4-0 start, and those that have been riding the defending Super Bowl champions near the top of their NFL confidence pool picks have excelled. With Cam Newton out in Week 4, the Chiefs cruised to a 26-10 victory over the Patriots and have now beaten three playoff teams from last season by double-digits. In Week 5, the Chiefs will take on the Raiders in a crucial AFC West matchup in which they could open up a three-game lead in the division with a lead.
Kansas City is an 11.5-point favorite in the latest Week 5 NFL odds from William Hill. After two dominant wins over the Raiders a year ago, the Chiefs could be among the most popular NFL office pool picks this weekend. But what other teams should you back with confidence with your Week 5 NFL picks, and which NFL underdogs should you target? Before you make your NFL picks, you need to see the Week 5 NFL football pool picks from SportsLine's proven model.
This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. It's off to a hot 44-18 start to the 2020 season, and anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated the entire Week 5, 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 times and generated its optimal NFL pick'em plays. Go to SportsLine to see them.
Top Week 5 NFL office pool predictions.
One of the top Week 5 NFL pick'em predictions from the model: San Francisco gets a comfortable win at home against Miami. No team in the NFL has been as decimated by injuries like the defending NFC champions, but quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) and running back Raheem Mostert (knee) will likely return to the lineup.
With Deebo Samuel and George Kittle making their returns in a Week 4 loss to the Eagles, the 49ers have much more firepower. That's good news against a Dolphins defense that ranks 27th in yards allowed and has given up 1,000 yards through the air the last three weeks.
The model predicts that Garoppolo completes over 70 percent of his passes and that San Francisco's rushing attack produces close to 150 yards on the ground. That's why the model predicts that the 49ers win outright in over 70 percent of simulations with an average final score of 30-20.
How to make Week 5 NFL office pool picks.
The model also made the call on every other Week 5 game and has strong picks for potentially close matchups like Colts vs. Browns and Falcons vs. Panthers. It's also calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only see all of the model's NFL pool picks here.

NFL picks, predictions for Week 5: Seahawks stop Vikings; Bills, Browns stay hot.
Week 5 of the NFL season is all about not looking ahead.
The Bills meet the Titans in a battle of unbeaten teams, and Buffalo has a chance to improve to 5-0 before a "Thursday Night Football" game against the Chiefs. Don't look ahead .
The Steelers are back in action against the Eagles, and they can improve to 4-0 before a matchup against the Browns in Week 6. Don't look ahead .
The Seahawks can become the only 5-0 team in the NFC against the Vikings on "Sunday Night Football" before a two-game stretch against division opponents in the Cardinals and 49ers. Don't look ahead .
We're looking forward to Week 5, which starts with Tom Brady on "Thursday Night Football" at Soldier Field.
With that as the mind, below are our picks and predictions for Week 5 of the NFL season. As always, our point spreads are courtesy of Sports Insider.
NFL predictions for Week 5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears.
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network, Fox.
We get a much better "Thursday Night Football" matchup in Week 5. Tom Brady has eight TDs and two interceptions the last two weeks, and he'll face a challenge against a Bears defense that has limited quarterbacks to a 74.4 quarterback rating so far. Does Chicago have enough offense in this one?
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Bears 23.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Panthers are on a two-game winning streak, and they have a chance to break a five-game losing streak to the Falcons. Carolina has not won at Atlanta since 2015. The fourth quarter should be high entertainment, but streaks are meant to be broken.
Pick: Panthers 30, Falcons 27.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Raiders have a high-scoring offense, too, but the Chiefs won last year's matchup at Arrowhead Stadium 40-9. Kansas City presents too many problems for a Las Vegas defense that has just four sacks in four games.
Pick: Chiefs 35, Raiders 22.
Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New York Jets.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Cardinals have lost back-to-back games, but a trip to New York should get Kyler Murray pointed back in the right direction. The Jets rank 31st in the NFL in scoring offense, and Sam Darnold is questionable for the game with a shoulder injury. Is it Joe Flacco time?
Pick: Cardinals 28, Jets 20.
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Steelers and Eagles meet in a Keystone State rivalry, and it's going to come down to which team can protect the quarterback better. The teams have combined for 32 sacks this season. Pittsburgh takes advantage of the unplanned bye week — and the Eagles' turnover ratio — to improve to 4-0.
Pick: Steelers 27, Eagles 19.
Los Angeles Rams (-9) at Washington Football Team.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Rams sputtered in a 17-9 victory against the Giants, but it gets well against a Washington team that has lost by two TDs or more each of the last three weeks and has quarterback questions again.
Pick: Rams 30, Redskins 14.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Joe Burrow picked up his first victory as a starter in Week 4 and is looking to add to a streak of three straight 300-yard games. The other side is the issue for Cincinnati in this one. Lamar Jackson has a 71 percent completion and two 100-yard rushing games in three career starts against the Bengals.
Pick: Ravens 34, Bengals 20.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Texans continue to spiral out of control, and a minus-5 turnover ratio isn't helping matters for Bill O'Brien. Jacksonville has given up 30-plus points in their last three losses, but they find a way to pull the upset on the road in a shootout.
Pick: Jaguars 30, Texans 27.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox.
We're tempted to take Miami in this one, especially with the rash of injuries in San Francisco. The 49ers, however, bounce back at home, especially if Jimmy Garoppolo returns from a high-ankle sprain. The 49ers win, but it's closer than expected.
Pick: 49ers 27, Dolphins 23.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Browns upset the Cowboys but are still not getting the respect from the oddsmakers. Some of that is because of Baker Mayfield's 2-11 record against winning teams as a starter, but the Browns keep that momentum moving in the right direction at home with another big victory.
Pick: Browns 28, Colts 24.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox.
This game normally fills the SNF window, but the miserable starts on both sides continue. The Cowboys have the third-best scoring offense and third-worst scoring defense. It won't matter against a New York team that won't be able to take advantage of the bad run defense enough.
Pick: Cowboys 33, Giants 23.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
The Seahawks continue to roll with MVP-candidate Russell Wilson. Minnesota can make it interesting if Kirk Cousins continues to work effectively with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, but it won't matter on the road. Seattle is 4-0 against the spread this season.
Pick: Seahawks 36, Vikings 24.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-11)
Monday, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Both teams have quarterback questions here. Will Drew Lock be back from injury? Will Cam Newton be cleared after testing positive for COVID-19? New England is the better team, and this game makes us long for the days of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning.
Pick: Patriots 28, Broncos 19.
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints.
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN.
The Saints' last two prime-time experiences were not great, but the third time is the charm against a reeling Los Angeles team that might be without Austin Ekeler. Drew Brees and the Saints stay on track with a second straight victory.
Pick: Saints 30, Chargers 20.
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at Tennessee Titans.
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Bills have a chance to improve to 5-0, against a Titans team that has been affected by COVID-19. Forget about the "Music City Miracle" replays. The Bills improve to 5-0 heading into a Week 6 TNF showdown with the Chiefs. That's a big line on the road.

College football picks, odds for ACC in Week 5: Rest or rust for North Carolina after two-week layoff?
Against the spread picks and best bets for all the ACC games in Week 5.
Now that everyone in the ACC has finally played a conference game, I feel like we can makes some knee-jerk reactions to what we've seen. Miami may, in fact, be back (at least to contending for a conference championship), Notre Dame has the pieces to win the ACC in its one year of full membership and the rebuilding effort ahead for Mike Norvell at Florida State is much longer and tougher than maybe even he imagined at the start of the season.
As we enter Week 5, it's important to note that not all records are the alike. While Miami and Pitt both appear to be league title contenders, the proximity of Boston College to Clemson and Notre Dame in the standings is likely going to be short-lived. The same could be said for Louisville who, while 0-2 in league play, is near the bottom of the conference with Florida State and Wake Forest but appears to have the weapons, at least offensively, to climb out of the cellar with some wins in the near future.
Duke, the only team in the ACC at 0-3 overall with all three losses coming in league play, does have plenty of issues to address before the season gets out of hand.
The point is we have some perception alignment issues from small sample sizes that can create advantages in the point spread. The market tends to overreact to the significance of these individual results when we don't have enough data points to form the full picture of a team, and that is an opportunity for us.
So with all that mind, let's take a look at the Week 5 lines in the ACC hoping to get you set with winners for the weekend, with odds provided via William Hill Sportsbook.
Note: Lines involving FCS opponents aren't set until later in the week, so there will be no picks for Campbell at Wake Forest on Friday and Jacksonville State at Florida State on Saturday.
ACC Week 5 odds, picks.
No. 12 North Carolina (-13.5) at Boston College: Most players and coaches would much prefer to be playing and not experience the kind of start-and-stop that North Carolina has gotten during this pandemic-impacted season. The Tar Heels haven't played since defeating Syracuse 31-6 on Sept. 12 because of one game getting canceled followed by a scheduled off week. In those two weeks, Boston College kicked off its season with an impressive win against Duke and then a comeback win against Texas State to improve to 2-0 under first-year coach Jeff Hafley. You might think the Eagles have an advantage here with two straight wins of momentum against the Tar Heels' rust, but I think two people established a unique advantage during that time off: offensive coordinator Phil Longo and quarterback Sam Howell. Longo has praised Howell's development in the mental side of the game, and during their time on the sidelines they got to see how Boston College's defense defended two different teams in two very different games. I expect the film sessions between a 20-point win against Duke and a 17-point comeback win against Texas State include plenty of information to use in the gameplan. I'm expecting Howell to have a great game and the Tar Heels can cover this two-score spread. Pick: North Carolina -13.5.
Virginia Tech (-10.5) at Duke: Big revenge game factor here for Justin Fuente and the Hokies, who looked awfully motivated already in its romp of the Wolfpack last Saturday. Down 23 players, including starting quarterback Hendon Hooker, and multiple coaches, including defensive coordinator Justin Hamilton, Virginia Tech jumped out to a 17-0 lead early and cruised to a 45-24 win. The offense was clicking behind a line that was getting a great push and rolled up 314 rushing yards at a 7.7 yards per attempt clip. They didn't turn the ball over and avoided special teams errors, looking sharp even when the third straight quarterback Quincy Patterson II had to come in for injured second-string quarterback Braxton Burmeister. The revenge factor comes from Duke's 45-10 win in Blacksburg last year, a late-September result that looked as puzzling as any in the ACC by the end of the season. Duke in 2020, so far, has shown a propensity to turn the ball over (seven turnovers in the loss to Virginia last week) and the inability to establish any consistency in the ground game. I'll admit a flaw in my study because of sample size, but right now, 1-0 Virginia Tech has 0-3 Duke needs. Pick: Virginia Tech -10.5.
Virginia at No. 1 Clemson (-28): These two programs haven't met in the regular season since 2013, but did face in each other in last year's ACC Championship Game. The combined score of those two games? Clemson 121, Virginia 27. That's why you see such a massive spread here as the Tigers return from an off week to face the Wahoos off a win in their season opener against Duke. Bronco Mendenhall's squad turned the Blue Devils over seven times in the 38-20 win, and new starting quarterback Brennan Armstrong had a solid performance as he takes over the offense that Bryce Perkins thrived in on the way to that Coastal Division title. Virginia's offensive line showed that it's taken some steps forward, but the change in competition is less of a step and more of a jump up to where Clemson's defensive line is at this point in the season. Armstrong will find it much tougher to run the offense with Bryan Bresee, Myles Murphy and the rest of that Tigers front making their home in the backfield, leaving me to believe Virginia won't be putting too many points on the board -- much like last year's ACC title game. Clemson gets to pick its number in this game, and I think it wins by 30. I don't hate tacking on an under play here either, but be wary of the Tigers getting to 42 on their own and the threat of a backdoor cover from Virginia. Pick: Clemson -28.
Last week: 3-3 | 2020 season: 10-9.

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