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Pete Prisco's NFL Week 9 picks: Patriots squeak out win over Jets, Ravens hold off Colts and more predictions.
Prisco reveals his NFL picks for Week 9, including why the Patriots will win a closer game than most expect.
I knew it was coming eventually, but the hurt from my first losing week still wasn't fun. Yes, the picks went rotten last week.
For the first time this season, my picks against the spread were on the negative side of the ledger. I went 5-9 ATS to drop my record to 64-53-1 for the year. My straight up mark was 9-5 to get to 80-37-1 for the year. I also had my first losing week on the Pick Six Podcast with my best bets, going 3-4. That makes my season mark 31-17-1.
Now that the dud week is out of my system, it's time to get back on track, which I plan to do.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 9? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join Will Brinson to break down their best bets and every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at San Francisco 49ers.
This rematch of the NFC title game last January has a different look to it for the 49ers in a big way. They are decimated by injuries, starting Nick Mullens at quarterback while being without George Kittle. They can still run the ball, which has been a problem for the Packers. But without Kittle and with a backup quarterback, it will be tougher to run it. The Packers will be thin at running back, but I think Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game will move the ball and find a way to win against a depleted team.
Pick: Packers 28, 49ers 21.
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3)
This game actually matters in the division race. That's sick. The Giants are playing on a short week after losing to the Bucs Monday night, while Washington is coming off a bye. The more rested team will be the one that plays better as the defensive front has a big day. Washington takes it.
Pick: Washington 21, Giants 17.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that's up over $7,600 on its top-rated picks.
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Both teams come in on two-game losing streaks. The Titans have major issues on defense, while the Bears have major issues on offense. Something has to give, and I think it's the Bears offense that gets it going. Titans win it, but it's close.
Pick: Titans 31, Bears 30.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
The Vikings won at Green Bay last week by doing it the old-fashioned way: pounding the football. They will try and do that here with Dalvin Cook and should be able to run it. The concern is the Minnesota defense. But I think they showed some improvement last week that will carry over here. Vikings win another.
Pick: Vikings 28, Lions 23.
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
The Panthers have lost three straight and now must travel to play one of the best teams in the league. The Chiefs will have an offensive explosion again here against the Carolina defense. Even with Christian McCaffrey likely back, it won't matter. Chiefs big.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Panthers 21.
Houston Texans (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars.
This will be Jake Luton making his first start for the Jaguars. The rookie has a big arm, and he looked good in camp, according to team sources. But this is a big challenge. The Jaguars defense has been awful and Deshaun Watson should light them up. Texans take it.
Pick: Texans 35, Jaguars 20.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts.
This is one of the better games of the week. The Colts have won two straight as Philip Rivers has righted his season. But this is a big challenge in the Ravens defense. The Baltimore offense has run it well, but it will be the passing that wins this game. Lamar Jackson gets it going.
Pick: Ravens 28, Colts 27.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills.
This is another good game this week. This is a long trip for Seattle to face a good Buffalo team. But the Buffalo defense has really struggled the past month. That is good news for Russell Wilson. He will light up the Buffalo secondary. Seattle wins a high-scoring game as Josh Allen also will play well.
Pick: Seahawks 33, Bills 28.
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
The Falcons have won two of three under interim coach Raheem Morris and have been rejuvenated a bit. Denver looked good coming back against the Chargers with Drew Lock leading it. This has a chance to be high scoring, but I think Matt Ryan will get the best of the Denver defense.
Pick: Falcons 30, Broncos 24.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
The Raiders impressed last week on the road winning at Cleveland. The defense came up big. They face a tough challenge in hot rookie passer Justin Herbert. The Chargers find new ways to blow leads seemingly every week. But that won't happen here as Herbert has a big day.
Pick: Chargers 31, Raiders 27.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5) at Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys are a mess, while the Steelers are the league's best team. They are playing a third straight road game, which is usually tough. But this is one of those games where you can throw that out the window. They are much better than the Cowboys right now, who will likely start Cooper Rush with Andy Dalton on the COVID-19 list. The Steelers stay unbeaten.
Pick: Steelers 34, Cowboys 20.
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-5)
The Dolphins have the top-scoring defense in the league, while the Cardinals were clicking on offense before the bye. This is a long trip for the Dolphins, but they won at San Francisco earlier this year. Even so, the Cardinals will carry over their hot play from before the bye and find a way to win this one. Kyler Murray beats Tua Tagovailoa.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Dolphins 21.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
The Bucs are playing on a short week and didn't look great against the Giants. But the Saints are playing consecutive road games. New Orleans won the first meeting, but this is a much better Tampa Bay team. The defense will get all over Drew Brees. Tom Brady will beat him in this one.
Pick: Bucs 27, Saints 17.
New England Patriots (-7) at New York Jets.
What a bad Monday night game this is for us. The Patriots have lost four straight, while the Jets haven't won yet. They won't win here either, but it will be close. The Patriots aren't a good team either. Take the points.
Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 21.

Week 9 NFL expert picks and Vegas predictions: Browns, Jaguars cover.
R.J. White went deep in the Las Vegas SuperContest two of the past four years.
Picking NFL games has been extremely profitable if you've listened to CBS Sports NFL editor R.J. White. In fact, if you placed $100 on each of White's NFL expert picks over the last two-plus seasons, you'd be up over $2,700. Smart bettors tail his selections.
White has been SportsLine's top pro football analyst, and over that span, the CBS Sports NFL editor and nationally-recognized NFL Draft expert has gone 235-187 on NFL picks against the spread. The stats guru, whose picks are coveted by fans everywhere, has also cashed huge in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, twice in the past four years. Now, he's back and crushing his SuperContest selections again in 2019.
"The worst part of the Browns' schedule is over after consecutive games against the Rams, Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks and Patriots, five teams with a combined 31-7 record," White told SportsLine. "That means this is the low point of Cleveland's stock, and as such we're getting them at a favorable line against a Broncos team that has no reason to fight with Brandon Allen at quarterback. Even if their defense (fifth in points per drive allowed) has another strong game here, the Browns' offense only needs to get to 17 points to expect a cover, something they should accomplish with a run-based approach."
"I believe Gardner Minshew's progress from the 13-12 loss the Jaguars suffered in his first career start will be enough for them to win this game," White told SportsLine. "The Texans' defense has gotten progressively worse since that game, and they rank just 22nd in net yards per attempt. Even if the Jags are down in the second half, I think Minshew can come from behind and win against Houston's mediocre secondary. On the other side of the ball, the Jags front can have success against a Houston offensive line that's getting healthier, but still isn't 100 percent. The Jags lean on their familiarity with this London trip and get the win."
White also is calling for a favorite to cover with ease on Sunday. The line is way off in this game, White says. He's only sharing which teams to pick at SportsLine.
So which teams should you back in Week 9? And which team cruises to a cover? Visit SportsLine now to see who you should back in Week 9, plus see which favorite covers with ease, all from the expert who keeps crushing the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament.

Week 9 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks Advice: Expert tips for football pools.
After a chalky week where the public largely rode favorites to favorable results, Week 9 features some tougher calls in NFL confidence and pick 'em pools. The number-crunching experts from TeamRankings break down win odds and pick percentages for five key games to help you find the right picks for your football pool.
As a reminder, TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks to maximize your edge in football pools. Last year, 80 percent of their subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick 'em contest.
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings , including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now !
Review of last week's picks.
Last week, we highlighted three favorites that were coming at relative value given the large pick percentages on every favorite last week. We won’t take too much credit for suggesting that you take the top favorite, Minnesota, and slot them as your top confidence play. But San Francisco and Green Bay were two favorites that were being picked a little less by the public than other similar teams, and both got big wins.
Meanwhile, the two value gambles we highlighted for consideration in weekly contests both came close but lost in heartbreaking fashion. Tampa Bay had their chances -- and some controversy -- in the loss at Tennessee, while Denver led the Colts until Adam Vinatieri hit a 51-yard game-winning field goal to end the game.
Week 9 NFL Picks Advice: Tips for Pick 'em Pools.
As we always caution, you shouldn't necessarily make every one of the picks below (especially the value gambles). The best Week 9 picks for your NFL pool depend on several factors, including rules, size, and prize structure. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends weekly picks for you based on all those factors.
Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data is subject to change between publication and kickoff. For the latest numbers, check our pick 'em picks product, which updates multiple times daily.
Week 9 features several favorites that the public is picking at a lower rate than their respective chances to win. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no-brainer picks” in NFL pick ’em contests, as both win odds and value are on your side. Here are three of them:
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Indianapolis)
The Colts are 5-2, but all seven games have been close affairs that could have gone either way. They were coming at value for the first month of the season as the public shied away from them, but now, the public is heavily on Indianapolis (73 percent of early picks are on the Colts), as it's tied for the second-best record in the AFC entering the week.
The Steelers, though, are the Vegas favorite in this one at home. Both our models and the betting markets give the Steelers a 52-percent chance to win. Our predictive power rankings have Pittsburgh just above the Colts on a neutral field, with the difference in record explained by close-game performance (The Steelers are 1-3 in games decided by eight or less).
Cleveland Browns (at Denver)
Joe Flacco has been ruled out of this Sunday’s game against Cleveland because of a neck injury. Coincidentally or not, Flacco was very vocal in his criticism of head coach Vic Fangio’s conservatism at the end of last week's loss to the Colts. As a result, Brandon Allen, a former sixth-round pick in 2016 by the Jaguars, is set to start. The 27-year-old Allen has been waived by both Jacksonville and the Rams prior to signing with Denver after rookie quarterback Drew Lock went on IR. He has yet to throw a pass in a regular season game.
So far, the pick popularity on this one has it pretty even, with the Browns getting 53 percent of the selections from the public. Sports books that have put a line back up on the board are generally in the 2.5-point to three-point range with Cleveland as the favorite. (Prior to the Flacco news, Denver was the favorite of around 1.5 points). Right now, Cleveland is coming at value as the favorite, and where the popularity ends up will determine whether that holds true by Sunday.
Oakland Raiders (vs. Detroit)
The Raiders have lost two in a row after their bye week and finally get to return home to play Detroit. One thing to keep in mind is just how infrequently the Raiders have played in Oakland this year. This is their first true home game since Sept. 15th against the Chiefs, as they have played four games on the road plus traveled to London and had a bye since then.
Oakland is a two-point favorite against the Lions and have implied win odds of 54 percent and public pick percentage of 53 percent. While that is not a huge value, you are still getting the betting favorite in a spot where almost half the public is going the other way.
If you're going to make a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward (that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase if your gamble pays off) is as big as possible. If you take a bunch of extra risk on a super trendy upset pick, the joke could be on you.
The picks below are not appropriate for all pools. If you're in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left, they're probably not worth the risk. However, if you're in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries -- or if you only care about winning weekly prizes -- these highly unpopular underdogs have compelling profiles.
Jacksonville (vs. Houston in London)
Jacksonville lost its first matchup with Houston back in Week 2 when Gardner Minshew made his first career start, and it came up just short on a two-point conversion in an attempt to take a late lead. This game is a near toss-up in London, with Houston as the early 1.5-point favorite. But two-thirds of the public is going with Deshaun Watson and the Texans, which provides value in weekly contests to go opposite the public and take a team that has a realistic chance of victory.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Green Bay)
The Packers are rolling, moving to 7-1 with the road win at Kansas City on Sunday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Chargers ended a three-game losing streak, but not necessarily in impressive fashion, as they needed a late field goal miss to win in Chicago. Now, these teams will meet in Los Angeles, where the Chargers will nominally be the home team but the stands are likely to be filled with green shirts.
The Chargers come in as a three-point underdog with about a 41-percent chance of winning, according to our models. But only eight percent of the public is going with Los Angeles. While it’s not the best pick in all formats, rolling with the Chargers in larger weekly pools provides a lot of value given their extremely low popularity for a team with a realistic chance of winning.
Which of these five NFL Week 9 picks should you make?
Once you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 9, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. Maybe you bump up the number of confidence points you assign to a team like Pittsburgh or Cleveland, or you take a chance on an upset like the Chargers or Jaguars.
There are a lot of potential decisions to make, and not all of them will make sense for your specific pool. It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answer. Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you.
Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends the best weekly picks for your pool based on all the strategy factors that matter. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it shows you the weekly pick sheet that will maximize your edge. We invite you to give it (and all our other premium NFL tools) a try for free. Good luck in your NFL pick 'em contests and office pools this week!
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free three-day premium trial to TeamRankings , including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now !

NFL Week 9 game picks: Bucs top Saints; Ravens best Colts.
Around The NFL Editor.
Gregg Rosenthal went 9-5 on his predictions for Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season, bringing his total record to 75-43-1. How will he fare in Week 9? His picks are below.
Washington Football Team 21, New York Giants 19.
While Daniel Jones was decomposing in prime time, the Team was chilling on a bye week. It's always tricky when teams play twice in such a short span, but the first meeting between the Giants and Washington, which came in Week 6, was instructive. Big Blue struggled to move the ball, relying on two Kyle Allen turnovers that set up 14 points. That could happen again, but the talent disparity here is real. The Giants are playing just hard enough to keep games close, but Washington has far more players (Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Chase Young, Montez Sweat and an underrated secondary) who can make plays without the help of some major schematic advantage.
Tennessee Titans 24, Chicago Bears 23.
This is a sneaky-great game. When the Titans have the ball, a dominant red-zone and third-down offense faces the league's preeminent red-zone and third-down defense. When the Bears have the ball, a Nick Foles-led group ranked near the bottom in red-zone and third-down offense faces a Titans defense that is historically terrible in getting off the field. Foles made more tough throws last week than he was given credit for and has faced a brutal stretch of the schedule that ends this week, which makes this more of a coin-flip game than Titans fans want to admit.
UPDATE: NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Thursday that Bears center Cody Whitehair tested positive for COVID-19.
Minnesota Vikings 27, Detroit Lions 24.
The Vikings and Lions are similar this season, as two teams stuck in the NFL's middle that could easily have better records. I give the Vikings the edge on Sunday largely because of who's available. Dalvin Cook is a tackle-breaking testament to a few running backs mattering, with coordinator Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking concepts taking off when he's in the lineup. Kenny Golladay, meanwhile, is Detroit's offensive Jenga piece. The Lions' erratic attack isn't explosive enough without Golladay on the field, and he's expected to miss this game with a hip injury, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport. Matthew Stafford was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday after having a high-risk close contact with a non-team person earlier this week, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. He could be eligible to play on Sunday if his tests come back negative in the days ahead and he remains asymptomatic. I was picking the Vikings to win either way, but the score projection could change, depending on Stafford's status.
Kansas City Chiefs 35, Carolina Panthers 21.
Pressure Patrick Mahomes or perish. The Panthers, who haven't had their bye, have forced only one punt in their last two games. They make other teams work for their points, but Brian Burns' breakout season doesn't provide enough juice up front to make up for the losses of Kawann Short and Yetur Gross-Matos from an already-thin defensive group. Mahomes has the look of a man ready to feast on a stretch of vulnerable opponents, making Christian McCaffrey's likely return from injury for this game of little concern for the defending champs.
Houston Texans 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 21.
I was convinced, based on Rapoport's reporting and Jaguars coach Doug Marrone's words, that rookie quarterback Jake Luton was going to start coming out of Jacksonville's bye week, even before the team knew of Gardner Minshew's injury. The Jaguars talked up Luton in training camp much like they talked up Minshew the year before. Facing the Texans' defense represents an ideal first matchup, but it's hard to imagine Luton keeping up in a shootout with Deshaun Watson. With the league's 32nd-ranked defense, shootouts and blowouts are the only types of Jaguars games.
Baltimore Ravens 24, Indianapolis Colts 20.
This game is a stress test that will tell us how different these Ravens truly are. Baltimore's defense is better than it was a year ago, but the sluggish passing game is impossible to ignore after another rough day for Lamar Jackson. Philip Rivers, on the other hand, is quietly carrying a Colts offense that ranks fifth in yards per pass attempt, yet dead last in yards per carry. I love Darius Leonard. I love Julian Blackmon. I love DeForest Buckner. But the Ravens' running game is coming off its best game of the year, and Baltimore still has more ways to win, with more firepower than the Colts, on both sides of the ball.
Seattle Seahawks 30, Buffalo Bills 24.
Jamal Adams, who's missed the last four games due to injury, and trade acquisition Carlos Dunlap could join a Seahawks defense coming off its best performance. This matchup sets up well for the upswing to continue. Like the other defenses that have slowed down the Bills lately, the Seahawks are happy to play coverage, keep the ball in front of them and wait for Josh Allen to make a mistake. Allen, who has turned the ball over as often as he's notched a TD in the last four weeks, has mixed in too many quick drives with his brilliant playmaking. All Russell Wilson needs at the moment is a few stops, and he can do the rest. Unless you're watching 2019 tape, the Bills' defense doesn't look like the group to stop him.
Denver Broncos 27, Atlanta Falcons 24.
Both of these teams have won two out of three games since resetting their season. Drew Lock looked absolutely lost for seven consecutive quarters before piloting a potential season-altering comeback over the Chargers. The Falcons have won decisively twice (and lost comically once) since Raheem Morris was named interim head coach, with Morris' ascension coinciding with Julio Jones' return to the field. This game means more for the Broncos. Their defense is well-coached and their offense has a ton of playmakers that can go the distance on any play. That's a recipe for a win, if Lock can avoid being his own worst enemy.
Las Vegas Raiders 30, Los Angeles Chargers 28.
The Chargers have the highest variance in football, which means they are the least consistent team from week to week. Their erratic play exists within games, as they often look like world-beaters before turning into a self-defeating mess. The Raiders are steady like their quarterback, pleasantly boring as they rack up long field-goal drives behind their mammoth offensive line. Derek Carr might lack the flash of Justin Herbert, and the Raiders don't quite measure up to their division rivals in overall talent, but there are mysterious, cosmic forces at play when the Chargers play fourth quarters. Don't mess with the cosmos.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28, Dallas Cowboys 10.
It doesn't matter whether it's Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush starting at quarterback for the Cowboys. Dallas was the worst team in the league with Andy Dalton at quarterback because its offensive line can't protect against four-man rushes and really can't protect against the blitz. The signs of life from Dallas' defense last week were heartening, but it's worth wondering if that effort will sustain when the Steelers' defense is scoring points and taking the ball away in bunches on Sunday afternoon. Free Tony Romo and Jim Nantz; no more Cowboys games!
Arizona Cardinals 27, Miami Dolphins 24.
The best way to prevent Dolphins coach Brian Flores from overwhelming your pass-protection schemes is to avoid obvious passing situations. One week after the Rams badly failed in this endeavor, the Cardinals will try to learn from Jared Goff's mistakes. Blitzing Kyler Murray is dangerous because he's so elusive, but the Dolphins' 32nd-ranked run defense is vulnerable if they don't go for broke. These are two fascinating teams that are dramatically improved from 2019 -- and the Dolphins have some magic to them. My heart says Miami, but my head has a hard time riding with Tua Tagovailoa until he proves he can move the offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, New Orleans Saints 24.
This score continues my theme of Week 9 underdogs falling short but keeping the game closer than expected. The analytics love the Bucs. I love the Bucs. There isn't an obvious weakness for Tampa Bay, although the team's big-name pass rush is quietly underwhelming. That could be a problem against a strong Saints offensive line, which protects Drew Brees well and blocks even better for Alvin Kamara in the run game and on screens. It's also hard to overstate how much better the Saints' offense should be with Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Marquez Callaway all trending toward a return to the field.
Still, the best way to beat the Tampa defense is over the top. That does not favor Brees. And while Marcus Davenport has given the Saints' pass rush new life, the Bucs' offensive line figures to keep Tom Brady clean. This is not only the biggest game of Week 9, but one of the biggest in the NFC all season. Both teams are Super Bowl contenders, and the winner will have a significant edge in the battle for the NFC South.

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