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week 4 college football picks
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п»їCollege football Week 4 picks against the spread for every top-25 matchup.
Week 4 of the college football season is here.
The Southeastern Conference is back in action, and it features seven of the eight games involving teams ranked in the top 25. There are three matchups with ranked teams this week, including No. 23 Kentucky at No. 8 Auburn, No. 24 Louisville at No. 21 Pitt and No. 22 Army at No. 14 Cincinnati. No. 12 Miami, which has been an early-season darling, resumes its rivalry with Florida State.
After three weeks of struggling against the spread, it’s time to get back on track.
Last week: 7-2 S/U, 2-5 ATS.
Overall: 21-7 S/U, 8-13 ATS.
Top 25: 11-2 S/U, 3-9 ATS.
Here's a look at our picks against the spread for Week 4:
Week 4 picks against the spread.
Kansas State at No. 3 Oklahoma (-27)
The Sooners are huge favorites and looking for revenge after losing to the Wildcats in a 48-41 shootout last season. The Wildcats are huge underdogs after the loss to Arkansas State. Kansas State was 3-1 ATS as a road dog last season.
Oklahoma wins 42-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 5 Florida (-14.5) at Ole Miss.
Lane Kiffin makes his debut with the Rebels, but they are up against a strong Florida team. The Gators are 7-1 ATS on the road the past two seasons, but that half-point hook is tough to pass up.
Florida wins 30-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 7 Notre Dame (-18) at Wake Forest.
The Irish poured it on South Florida in Week 2 with a dominant rushing attack that piled up 281 rushing yards. The Irish are 1-1 ATS the spread, which has dropped from its 21-point starting point. We'll take the value.
Notre Dame wins 34-14 and COVERS the spread.
No. 23 Kentucky at No. 8 Auburn (-8)
This is the only game between ranked SEC teams this week, and it's a chance for the Wildcats to prove they belong in the Top 25. This should be tight into the fourth quarter and will come down to whether Terry Wilson can match Bo Nix in the passing game.
Auburn wins 27-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 13 UCF (-25.5) at East Carolina.
The Knights' offense hasn't missed a beat, and is coming off a week when it rolled up 660 total yards against Georgia Tech. Look for Dillon Gabriel to keep that offense in high gear against the Pirates, who don't have a game under their belts.
UCF wins 48-14 and COVERS the spread.
No. 24 Louisville at No. 21 Pitt (-3.5)
It hinges on how the Cardinals bounce back from a 47-34 loss to Miami. These teams have not played since 2015. The Panthers have a balanced offense around Kenny Pickett and have won five of the past six in the series. We're still antsy with this pick.
Pitt wins 28-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Georgia Southern at No. 19 Louisiana (-13.5)
Louisiana didn't cover against Georgia State, which squeaked by Campbell with a short-handed roster on Sept. 12. Look for the Ragin' Cajuns to bounce back at home.
Louisiana wins 34-20 and COVERS the spread.
Mississippi State at No. 6 LSU (-17)
The defending national champions lost a bunch from last year's roster, and they face Mike Leach in his debut with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State won't win, but unfamiliarity on both sides will lead to a cover.
LSU wins 30-14 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 8 Texas (-17) at Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have had several positive COVID-19 tests since the spring, and there is little continuity on defense. Even on the road, Texas blows this one wide open.
Texas wins 45-20 and COVERS the spread.
West Virginia at No. 15 Oklahoma State (-8.5)
Spencer Sanders left with a leg injury in a lackluster opener for Oklahoma State, and the Mountaineers look much improved in Neal Brown's second season. The Cowboys have won the past five meetings, but the last two have been close.
Oklahoma State wins 30-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 22 Army at No. 14 Cincinnati (-12)
Army outscored its first two opponents 79-7 and now faces a tough Cincinnati defense. Luke Fickell is 1-1 against Navy since taking over for the Bearcats, and Army should be able to hang around long enough with a few sustained drives.
Cincinnati wins 27-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 4 Georgia (-24.5) at Arkansas.
Sam Pittman makes his Arkansas debut, but it's not an easy one against a top-five team that will be breaking in new quarterbacks in D'Wan Mathis and JT Daniels. Georgia's defense will be the difference in a blowout.
Georgia wins 38-10 and COVERS the spread.
No. 2 Alabama (-28.5) at Missouri.
Is Alabama's defense better this season? That will be the question against a Missouri team for which Eli Drinkwitz will be making his debut. The line is tough because the Crimson Tide have won the past three meetings by an average of 30 points per game. That is right on target.
Alabama wins 45-14 and COVERS the spread.
Vanderbilt at No. 10 Texas A&M (-29.5)
Vanderbilt has two new coordinators in a pressure-packed year for Derek Mason, and that's tough to break in on the road against a talented Texas A&M team. That's still too many points. The Commodores lost by more than 28 one time last season.
Texas A&M wins 41-14 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 16 Tennessee (-3) at South Carolina.
Tennessee is getting a lot of hype this offseason, but there is more pressure on the Gamecocks and Will Muschamp. Colorado State transfer Collin Hill is an interesting player to watch for South Carolina, but the Vols have more continuity on both sides.
Tennessee wins 28-20 and COVERS the spread.
Florida State at No. 12 Miami (-10)
We have gone against the spread with Miami twice and lost. Now, we will see whether the Hurricanes can handle the hype against a Florida State team that will be without its head coach. The Hurricanes have won the past three meetings.
Miami wins 31-19 and COVERS the spread.
N.C. State at No. 20 Virginia Tech (-10)
Both teams have been affected by COVID-19 outbreaks, and this is the long-awaited conference debut for each team. Expect it to be ugly in the first half and close in the second half.
Virginia Tech wins 24-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Troy at No. 18 BYU (-13.5)
The line has dropped with the Cougars dealing with COVID-19 issues, and Troy rolled up 240 yards rushing in its season opener. We still like what BYU's offense showed in the opener, and look for more from Zach Wilson.
BYU wins 35-20 and COVERS the spread.


10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 4.
Fearless Predictions.
By Pete Fiutak September 25, 2020 12:48 pm.
By Pete Fiutak | September 25, 2020 12:48 pm.
What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 4? Here you go. Enjoy.
Results So Far ATS: 14-9.
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
After going 8-2 last week, the ten lines that appear to be a wee bit favorable are …
10. Texas at Texas Tech.
LINE : Texas -17.5 ATS PICK: Texas – Bet on this, BetMGM latest line.
You don’t want to get too high or too low over anyone’s opening game, especially when it’s against UTEP. However, Texas was razor-sharp from the start in the 59-3 win, and Texas Tech against Houston Baptist, wasn’t.
HBU QB Bailey Zappe fired at will on the Red Raider secondary and almost pulled out a late win. Until proven otherwise, assume there are issues with the Texas Tech defense.
It would be so Texas to follow up a performance like the one against the Miners with something sluggish, and yes, things get cranked up now that it’s a Big 12 game. For now, assume Texas is just that good.
9. Vanderbilt at Texas A&M.
LINE : Texas A&M -30.5 ATS PICK: Vanderbilt – Bet on this, BetMGM latest line.
Call this a Read The 2020 College Football Season Room sort of pick. So far – in general – the openers have been ragged for everyone, and Texas A&M is likely going to go Texas A&M and be deliberate and methodical.
Vanderbilt is going to have issues offensively, but the defense has experience and just enough talent to keep this from being a total wipeout. As bad as the team was last year, it only lost one game by more than 30 – Florida 56-0. This year’s version is strong enough to put up a few points.
It’ll be an easy Aggie win, but the last time A&M won an SEC game by more than 30 points was in late October of 2012 against Auburn.
8. Mississippi State at LSU.
LINE : LSU -16.5 ATS PICK: Mississippi State – Bet on this, BetMGM latest line.
Just how sure are you that LSU reloaded?
This is going to be another amazing Tiger team, and it’s going to have a bit of a chip on its shoulder from all the naysayers pointing out all the lost talent, but this really is going to be a learning experience for almost the entire team.
Mississippi State is starting out a new era under Mike Leach, and it’s asking a whole lot to get the timing down of his offense right away against the defending national champs, but to harp on a theme throughout this week, teams don’t seem to be right in their opening games.
If LSU is air-tight and wins 31-3, tip your cap and go on your way, but Mississippi State isn’t that bad.
7. Tulane at Southern Miss.
LINE : Tulane -3.5 ATS PICK: Tulane – Bet on this, BetMGM latest line.
Which team is going to be more weird?
Southern Miss didn’t show up against South Alabama, lost its head coach, and then lost at home to Louisiana Tech.
Tulane put together a fantastic game if you combine the second half of the the 27-24 win over South Alabama and the first half of the 27-24 loss to Navy. There’s no passing from Keon Howard to get excited about, but the running game has been terrific, and the pass rush should be enough to be a bother.
Also, it’s Howard against his former Southern Miss team. Combine that, with trying to get past the debacle in the second half against Navy, and the intangibles are on Tulane’s side.
6. Florida at Ole Miss.
LINE : Florida -13.5 ATS PICK: Florida – Bet on this, BetMGM latest line.
The last three openers against FBS teams have been rocky for Florida.
It struggled to survive a mediocre Miami team last year, it did the unthinkable and lost to Kentucky in 2018, and it got whacked around by Michigan in 2017.
This will be a better Ole Miss team in Lane Kiffin’s first season, there will be a buzz – albeit, a modified one – being at home, and there’s a chance this stays close throughout in a good, tight battle.
However, Florida has the lines, it has the secondary, and it has the style to grind it out just enough to wear down the Rebels. It’s a stretch to say these Gators might be opening-day-clunker proof, but it’s built to rely on the power game if it has to.
You’ll have to sweat this out in a big way, but 13.5 is key here. 14 or more and there’s an issue.


College football picks, odds for ACC in Week 4: Miami, Boston College enter as sizable favorites.
Best bets and picks for all of the ACC action on tap in Week 4.
If all goes well with COVID-19 testing. we should finally see the remaining ACC teams yet to play in the 2020 season in action during what should be a very exciting Week 4 across the conference. After getting our first look at Boston College and NC State, both victorious in their conference and season-openers last week, we should finally get a chance to learn more about Commonwealth Cup rivals Virginia and Virginia Tech on Saturday. As long as those two games, Duke at Virginia and NC State at Virginia Tech, are played as scheduled, then we will enter the month of October with every ACC team on the board with at least one conference game under its belt.
So, fingers crossed, Saturday should be a moment to celebrate the players who have taken great efforts to play this fall as the final ACC teams get off the sideline and onto the field for the first time in 2020.
Let's turn our attention to the action set to take place in this momentous Week 4, with hopes to keep the momentum rolling from a successful Week 3 on the picks side of things.
No. 24 Louisville at No. 21 Pitt (-2.5): Pat Narduzzi can't be happy with the sloppiness Pitt showed in its win against Syracuse. Bad penalties, missed field goals and a couple turnovers kept what would have been a comfortable win well in reach for the Orange into the third quarter. The belief around the program is that performance was uncharacteristic of Pitt's standard, and this week should be all about correcting those issues. Which brings us to Louisville, and my concern that the defense that was exposed by Miami might not be able to correct the structural issues in just one week. This is a bad matchup with Louisville's greatest strength, its offense, being met and possibly limited by Pitt's greatest strength, its defense. The Panthers are elite at all three levels of the defense and get the tiebreaker here with a passing attack that has enough weapons to find the space that Miami was able to exploit last week. Look for freshman wide receiver Jordan Addison to shine and Pitt to improve to 3-0 on the season. Pick: Pitt -2.5.
Want more college football in your life? Listen below and subscribe to the Cover 3 College Football podcast for top-notch insight and analysis beyond the gridiron.
Duke at Virginia (-5.5): Major alarm bells are going off after Duke's loss to Boston College because it was as unfamiliar a performance that we've come to expect from David Cutcliffe's teams. Under Cut, Duke has closed talent and athleticism gaps with elite attention to detail. Saturday's home loss to Boston College was the exact opposite of that. There were bad penalties, coverage busts that resulted in explosive plays, poor open-field tackling and red-zone turnovers that kept the Blue Devils from hanging in a game that it absolutely had the talent to win. If Duke corrects those mistakes and brings better energy and focus to a Virginia team that has yet to play a game, it could cover this spread. That'd be a bad bet, though, and the right side is looking at a Duke team that can't score in the red zone, a Virginia offense with a new starting quarterback and the expected standard of a Bronco Mendenhall-coached defense and taking the under. Pick: Duke-Virginia Under 47.
Florida State at No. 12 Miami (-11): This year's edition of Miami-Florida State is overflowing with narratives. Miami is surging after nearly hanging 50 on Louisville in a win that clearly makes a case for the Canes as one of the best teams in the ACC. The Canes aren't just expected to beat Florida State, but to do so handily after the Seminoles lost to Georgia Tech at home in its 2020 opener. The start of the Mike Norvell era went just as poorly as many of the fourth-quarter collapses from the last two seasons, leaving Florida State fans with a familiar sinking feeling that's going to take more than one coaching change. Oh yeah, and speaking of Norvell? He's not even with the team after testing positive for COVID-19! There's just so much "stuff" going on here that no side feels right, and we're left to fall back on an old trusty principle: rivalry game unders. We're capitalizing on the tension of the moment and guessing that more than a few drives won't go as planned for the offenses, plus some tight butts if the game is close in the second half. Florida State is an under-friendly team with its solid defense and poor offense, so that's just another reason to ride on the total and avoid the inevitable sweat of an 11-point spread. Pick: Miami-FSU Under 56.5.
Last week: 5-2 | 2020 season: 7-6.


College Football Week 4 Picks: Early Conference Clashes Carry Big Implications.
Another college football weekend is upon is, with a compelling slate of games starting with Friday's Pac-12 showdown between Utah and USC in Los Angeles. Saturday then brings a couple key Big Ten clashes—Michigan at Wisconsin and Michigan State at Northwestern—plus an SEC West top-25 battle featuring Auburn and Texas A&M and a marquee non-conference matchup in primetime with Notre Dame traveling to Georgia. Who will win Week 4's 12 biggest games? Our writers and editors' picks are in. To see our picks against the spread, click here.
Season-Long Standings :
Scooby Axson : 29–8 (78.4%) Max Meyer : 28–9 (75.7%) Michael Shapiro : 27–10 (73%) Molly Geary : 26–11 (70.3%) Tim Rohan : 25–12 (67.6%) Ross Dellenger : 22–15 (59.5%) Laken Litman : 21–16 (56.8%) Joan Niesen : 19–18 (51.4%)
No. 10 Utah at USC (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, FS1)
Max Meyer picks Utah : Admittedly, I haven’t been overly impressed with Utah to start the season, as the Utes have surrendered 5.5 yards per play against BYU and 5.4 against Northern Illinois. But I can’t ignore two massive advantages for the Utes: their top-tier defensive line against a USC offensive line that struggled to handle three BYU players rushing the QB this past weekend, as well as the coaching mismatch between Clay Helton and Kyle Whittingham. So while I think this is an extremely close game, those two factors ultimately give the Utes the win in Los Angeles on Friday night.
No. 11 Michigan at No. 13 Wisconsin (12 p.m. ET, FOX)
Joan Niesen picks Wisconsin : This will be the fourth consecutive season the Badgers and Wolverines have faced off, and in the three prior, the home team has won. I predict that trend will continue, and not just due to Wisconsin's home-field advantage. This year's Badgers, albeit against lesser competition, have looked just as good as, if not better, the teams that won the Big Ten West in 2016 and '17. Jonathan Taylor has been something like unstoppable, and the Badgers offense is far more balanced and plays with a greater measure of ball security than it did in 2018. On the other side of the ball, its defense has been phenomenal. Meanwhile, Michigan's defense may have lost a bit of its bite from a year ago, and its offense will almost certainly struggle to get the running game going against Wisconsin, which has all but eliminated that phase of the game for its opponents thus far. That'll put pressure on Shea Patterson, and Wisconsin will ultimately win a close game.




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