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п»їNFL picks, 2021 NFC, AFC Championship best bets, predictions, simulations, parlay by model on 120-78 run.
The SportsLine Projection Model just revealed its top NFL picks for both NFL conference title games.
Championship Weekend of the 2021 NFL Playoffs will take place on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes cleared the league's concussion protocol and will now face Josh Allen in a matchup of dynamic young quarterbacks as the Chiefs host the Bills in the 2021 AFC Championship Game. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Also on Sunday, two future Hall-of-Famers will go head-to-head when Aaron Rodgers and the Packers host Tom Brady and the Buccaneers at Lambeau Field in the 2021 NFC Championship Game.
Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest NFL spreads after opening at -3. How should you construct your NFL bets on Sunday? If you're feeling truly bold, SportsLine's proven computer model is going huge, putting together a four-way parlay of NFL best bets that could return a massive 10-1 payout.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters Championship Weekend of the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest 2021 Championship Weekend NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. If you parlay its picks, you could be looking at payout of 10-1. You can only see them here.
Top NFL predictions for the Championship Round.
One of the top Championship Round NFL picks the model recommends: Bills vs. Chiefs goes under the total of 54.5. Both offenses have disappointed lately, with Kansas City managing just 22 points in a win over the Browns last week and Buffalo putting up just 17 against Baltimore.
The Bills went 4-for-13 on third downs against the Ravens after ranking first in third-down conversion rate (49.7), while the Chiefs managed just 19 points from five trips inside the red-zone.
The Chiefs haven't topped 23 points in three consecutive games. The model predicts that Allen and Mahomes will both throw for fewer than 260 yards and combine for fewer than four touchdowns on average. That's a big reason why the under hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations.
How to make Championship Weekend NFL picks.
The model has also made the call against the spread in both conference title games and has found huge value on one of the underdogs. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What are the top NFL picks for Championship Weekend? And which underdog do you need to jump all over? Visit SportsLine now to see the NFL best bets for Championship Weekend, all from the model that is up nearly $7,900 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.


NFL playoff picks, predictions against spread: Bucs solve Saints; Chiefs bounce Browns; Bills, Packers survive.
And then there were eight teams remaining in the race for Super Bowl 55. With the divisional round of the 2021 NFL playoffs here it's time for another round for picks and predictions against the spread.
Although the slate drops from six games during wild-card weekend to a combined four this Saturday and Sunday, there's still plenty of good two-day action between the AFC and NFC matchups. There are two strong favorites and two mild favorites among the home teams this week.
Here's to trying to build on our solid success navigating through the numbers from last week:
NFL playoff picks, predictions against the spread.
Game of the Week: Ravens at Bills (-2.5, 50 o/u)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC.
This game will live up to the billing of being a dynamic passing and running duel between 2018 first-round quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. The Bills' defensive weakness is against the run, which will allow Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to get going between the tackles and around the edges. The Ravens are solid against the run but, despite some having some good, experienced pass rushers and cornerbacks, they have lapses in pressure and coverage, which can expose them further with their frequent blitzes.
Jackson will do plenty of damage on the ground and Allen will have his share of key physical runs. It will come down to which quarterback can make a few more big pass plays off script. Jackson will see Tre'Davious White contain Marquise Brown, left leaning mostly on tight end Mark Andrews in a great matchup. The difference will be the Bills' Stefon Diggs, who can consistently get the better of Marcus Peters outside to boost Allen.
Pick: Bills win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Chiefs (-10, 55.5 o/u) over Browns.
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Browns came out looking for big plays and takeaways against the Steelers and were successful, eventually closing out their AFC North rivals with Nick Chubb and the power running game. Chubb and former Chiefs feature back Kareem Hunt will be critical to the chances of a second consecutive (and much bigger) road upset.
Baker Mayfield can't get into a pure chuck-fest with Patrick Mahomes because he doesn't have the same all-around weapons and is facing the much tougher of the two overall pass defenses. The Browns need to play ball control, picking good spots for Mayfield to hit on big plays off play-action and bootlegs and then make sure they lean on Chubb and Hunt most to finish in the red zone.
The Chiefs will counter by relentlessly throwing with a rested Mahomes. The Browns simply do not have anyone who can cover wide receiver Tyreek Hill deep or tight end Travis Kelce on intermediate routes. The goal will be jumping off to a significant lead and limiting the Browns' use of the run, putting Mayfield in uncomfortable situations against Frank Clark, Chris Jones and the rest of the Chiefs' pass rush. Mayfield also needs to be careful throwing to the middle of the field with safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorenson looming.
The Browns won't have answers for Mahomes. The Chiefs will find plenty for Mayfield in the second half.
Pick: Chiefs win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET, Fox.
Tom Brady's first game as a Buccaneer was rough in New Orleans in Week 1. His second shot at the Saints was even worse at home in Week 9. But Brady wasn't playing nearly at the same level in either previous meeting as he is now, fully locked into his wide receivers, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. He's set at tight end, too, whether it's Cameron Brate or old buddy Rob Gronkowski running the routes. The Saints have developed more coverage issues all over the field and after seeing their defense twice on film, Brady will adjust into the most comfortable matchup, most every time.
The Bucs and Saints both stop the run well, so it will come down which fortysomething quarterback, Brady or Drew Brees, can avoid the big mistakes but also deliver big plays. Brady has simply been the more impressive passer with the stronger arm for his age and has more guys who can cause matchup problems. Brees will have success working on shorter routes to Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, but Evans, Godwin and Brown will be of bigger help to Brady.
Pick: Buccaneers win 34-31.
Rams at Packers (-7, 46 o/u)
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Rams will make this a game because of their running game. Their offensive line pushed around the Seahawks with Andrew Whitworth back and the fresh legs of rookie Cam Akers has made the rushing attack central again. Jared Goff will be a little healthier to take advantage of that, working play-action to Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. The Packers will handle some of that by putting cornerback Jaire Alexander on Woods.
On the other side, Aaron Rodgers will see Davante Adams locked up with Jalen Ramsey and knows center Corey Linsley and the rest of his strong interior offensive line need to keep Aaron Donald at bay, especially with the edge compromised without left tackle David Bakhtiari. Rodgers and Aaron Jones don't find it easy at first, but then Rodgers finds tight end Robert Tonyan and other matchups he likes away from downfield and Jones will go to work on a worn-down group in the second half.
The Rams' defense makes a statement against the MVP QB in Green Bay, but they can't do enough to make sure the Rams' offense outscores whatever Rodgers leads the Packers to do.
Pick: Packers win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Stats of the Week.
Wild-card playoff straight up: 5-1 Wild-card playoffs against the spread: 3-2 Season straight up: 169-93 Season against the spread: 135-119.


NFL picks, predictions against the spread for Week 13.
Our NFL Week 12 picks and predictions against the spread were a little rough again, but we'll hopefully get back on track with better all-around luck for Week 13. A lot of crazy finishes contributed to the fearless forecast frustration. The only way to break out of that is dive headfirst into the next wave of pigskin prognostications.
Week 13 brings plenty more small lines and tossup games, but also some considerable double-digit favorites to navigate. Everything has gotten more difficult as some of the lesser teams clump together as more equals, regressing to their mean.
Stats of the Week.
Week 12 straight up: 9-5.
Week 12 against the spread: 3-9.
Season straight up: 111-63.
Season against the spread: 94-76.
Without trepidation, here's how SN breaks down the upcoming matchups and sees the entire slate of 15 games playing out:


NFL playoff picks, predictions: Packers edge Buccaneers, Chiefs hold off Bills in championship games.
NFL championship weekend features a pair of quarterback matchups for all ages.
First, Tampa Bay meets Green Bay in the NFC championship game at 3:05 p.m. ET on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers, 37, is playing in his fifth NFC championship game, but it's his first one at Lambeau Field. Tom Brady, 43, is in his 14th NFC championship game, but this is his first one in the NFC. It's also the first postseason matchup between the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
Buffalo travels to Kansas City for the AFC championship game at 6:40 p.m. ET. It's the Chiefs' third straight AFC championship game at Arrowhead Stadium, and it remains to be seen whether Patrick Mahomes, 25, will clear concussion protocol for the game. If not, the Chiefs will turn to backup quarterback Chad Henne, 35, who sealed the divisional playoff round victory against the Browns. Josh Allen, 24, is trying to get the Bills back in the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993.
Sporting News hit three of four on divisional playoff weekend. Here is a look at our track record this season:
Last Week: 3-1 Regular season: 129-75 Playoffs: 7-3 Overall: 136-78.
With that as the mind, below are our picks and predictions for the conference championship games:
NFL picks, predictions for championship games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Sunday, 3:05 p.m., FOX.
Green Bay looked unstoppable on offense against the Rams with the combination of Rodgers' efficiency and a three-headed running game led by Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon.
That's where this matchup starts. The Packers generated just 94 rushing yards in the regular-season meeting, a 38-10 loss at Tampa Bay that was ignited by two Rodgers' interceptions in the second quarter. The Buccaneers had five sacks, and the combined pressure from defensive linemen Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh flustered Green Bay. Devin White and Lavonte David are speedy linebackers who can stuff the run, too. That is the challenge for a Packers' offensive line that has improved since, even without starting tackle David Bakthiari.
Rodgers needs those play-action opportunities to work with Davante Adams and Robert Tonyan. Green Bay made it look easy against the Rams. Can they do it again?
Then there's Brady, who made the Packers pay for those mistakes in the first meeting. He's working with a loaded group of receivers. Ronald Jones had 113 yards and two TDs in the first meeting, and Green Bay's defense has been susceptible to the run. Defensive tackle Kenny Clark needs to be more disruptive in this game.
The Packers did not get a sack in that first meeting either. Rashan Gary, Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith need to pressure Brady, or he will sit back and work with a loaded group of receivers. Who wins the red-zone matchups between Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans and Green Bay's secondary, which features a lock-down cornerback in Jaire Alexander and an emerging safety in Darnell Savage Jr.? That will be the key.
With these two quarterbacks, it comes down to a handful of plays. The Packers will hold on to a one-score lead at halftime, but Tampa Bay ties it early in the fourth quarter with an Antonio Brown touchdown. It really might come down to which quarterback has the ball last – and which defense comes up with the stop. How much of an advantage is Lambeau Field? We think it makes the slight difference in an instant classic.
Pick: Packers 31, Buccaneers 28.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Sunday, 6:40 p.m., CBS.
It's difficult to make a pick without knowing whether Mahomes is playing this week, but we're going to base this prediction on the premise he's able to go. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip) also practiced last week but was inactive for the Browns' game. Edwards-Helaire had 161 rushing yards in Kansas City's 26-17 victory against the Bills in Week 6. Darrel Williams started over Le'Veon Bell last week, so he could be the focus if Edwards-Helaire can't go. The Chiefs also were without Sammy Watkins (calf) last week.
The good news? Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill were still in action. They can hit the chunk plays against Buffalo's secondary no matter who is at quarterback.
Josh Allen struggled in the regular-season matchup, but he didn't take a sack in that loss. He also had not established a strong connection with Stefon Diggs, who has emerged as one of the best – if not the best – receiver in the league this season. Allen will target Diggs frequently, and Cole Beasley and John Brown to need to take advantage of their 1-on-1 opportunities. The Bills need to generate a running game with Devin Singletary early, and Allen will make more plays this time.
Again, this pick still comes down to Mahomes. If he's cleared, then we'll assume he's healthy enough to lead the Chiefs to another Super Bowl appearance.
Buffalo takes the early lead on a Diggs' TD, and the Bills cling to a third-quarter lead before the Mahomes magic act begins. Second-half TDs to Kelce and Hill re-take the lead, and Kansas City closes the door behind the running game in the fourth quarter. If last week taught us anything, then it's Andy Reid won't hold back in crunch time.
It's tight again, but Kansas City repeats as AFC champions. We will re-evaluate this pick if he can't go.




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